• Pound still in the balance after UK data

    Friday saw further falls in the Pound as concerns grew over a clear Election outcome (ever thus IMHO), ongoing Brexit uncertainty and then late in the day US ratings agency Moody downgraded its UK government debt outlook to Negative from Stable. This morning we've had Q3 GDP, Industrial and Manufacturing production, and Trade balance data but we've seen limited reaction given the mixed bag and larger focus on Brexit/General Election.

    GBPUSD fell further in Asia to test decent support at 1.2760 and remains on the back foot after its lower highs from 1.3000 in recent sessions and helped by some general USD demand and risk- off GBPJPY supply again but we've seen a rally back above 1.2800 for the moment. EURGBP still tightly bound with support around 0.8600 again but failing above 0.8630.GBPJPY also continues to see good two-way trading and tightly bound.

    I will continue to rally-sell GBP as my preferred strategy overall too amid the ongoing Brexit/Election uncertainty but happy to buy back in the dips still. In essence the general uncertainty and can kicking continues and for me that's still Pound negative not to mention last week's BOE dovish tones. I make no apologies for trawling out the same thoughts because for me nothing has really changed.

    EURUSD is still on the back foot helped by some ongoing USD demand and EURJPY/EURCHF supply but still contained by some large option expiry interest with plenty more on the slate this week. USDJPY has failed around 109.30 again helped by some some softer risk sentiment but still has dip demand. 122.00, 122.30 and 122.50.Bids again at 120.00 then 119.80, 119.60, 119.30 and 119.00.USDCHF has posted fresh recent highs of 0.9982 and remains underpinned helped by the softer EURUSD tones but tempered by EURCHF supply again.

    AUDUSD remains tightly bound but rally sellers on AUDJPY still helping to cap around 0.6900 while USDCAD has found itself underpinned by the USD demand/softer oil price combo again.

    Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.

    The soggy Shrimpers hit new lows yesterday being bundled out of the FA Cup in the First Round by non-league Dover. Sad times to see a club I've followed for over 50 years hit the skids in such inglorious fashion. Hey ho, more important things out there in the world eh?

    A final reminder that I shall be taking a week's holiday (my first this year!) from tomorrow (12 November) and will not be sending updates or be contactable so please approach your rate providers directly.

    Have a good day/week out there one and all.

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank rates: 09.36 GMT

    GBPUSD 1.2801

    EURUSD 1.1032

    GBPEUR 1.1603

    GBPAUD 1.8654

    GBPCAD 1.6926

    GBPJPY 139.52

    GBPZAR 19.0456

    GBPHKD 9.9254

    USDJPY 108.99

    USDZAR 14.8725

    EURJPY 120.24

    EURCHF 1.0981

    EURHKD 8.5564

    AUDUSD 0.6863

    USDCAD 1.3221

    USDCHF 0.9954

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  • Variable risk sentiment again amid US-China trade deal uncertainty

    Further to yesterday's BOE dovish tones we've seen the Pound tightly bound with large option expiry interest today at 1.2800 helping to underpin but similarly failing to hold above the 1.2830 area/offers I highlighted a couple of times yesterday. Risk sentiment still variable too as the US-China trade talks continue to produce contrasting headlines/undertones and a signing of the Phase 1 agreement still a little way off.

    GBPUSD remains on the back foot amid some general USD demand and risk-off GBPJPY supply but pinned by that large expiry interest with even larger at 1.2700 also expected to provide support should we get anywhere close. EURGBP still ranging too with support around 0.8600 again but failing above 0.8650.GBPJPY also continues to see good two-way trading and tightly bound between 139.50-140.30.

    I will continue to rally-sell GBP as my preferred strategy overall too amid the ongoing Brexit/Election uncertainty but happy to buy back in the dips still. In essence the general uncertainty and can kicking continues and for me that's still Pound negative no to mention yesterday's BOE dovish tones.

    EURUSD is also still on the back foot helped by some ongoing USD demand but tightly bound too with large option interest rolling today at 1.1050 and 1.1085-00.USDJPY has finally broken up through the 109.25-30 offers amid some better risk and USD tones but failing into the next tranche at 109.50 so far. Support comes in at 109.00 now.USDCHF has posted fresh recent highs of 0.9962 and remains underpinned helped by the current general USD and EURCHF demand with the SNB being ever vigilant.

    AUDUSD remains tightly bound amid the US-China uncertainty and now falling again to post 0.6871 helped by the latest round of USD demand and rally sellers emerging in AUDJPY around 75.50. USDCAD has found itself underpinned by the USD demand/softer oil price combo and now testing 1.3200 again.

    Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.

    Don't forget too that I offer 1-2-1 mentoring if there's areas of trading these tight ranges, or how to make best use of the order boards and expiries, that you might need some further help with. I develop your powers of trading discipline and psychology all learned in my 38 years in FX, including 20 as a market maker.

    A reminder that I shall be taking a week's holiday (my first this year!) from 12-19 November and will not be turning any screens or phones on let alone send updates.

    Have a good day/week-end out there one and all.

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank rates: 08.40 GMT

    GBPUSD 1.2822

    EURGBP 0.8620

    EURUSD 1.1053

    GBPEUR 1.1598

    GBPAUD 1.8627

    GBPCAD 1.6909

    GBPJPY 140.11

    GBPZAR 18.9888

    GBPHKD 9.9409

    USDJPY 109.30

    USDZAR 14.8283

    EURHKD 8.5712

    EURJPY 120.81

    EURCHF 1.1004

    AUDUSD 0.6893

    USDCAD 1.3191

    USDCHF 0.9956

    Read more...

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  • Jury still out on risk sentiment and US Dollar

    it's all extremely tight still as the US-China trade talks continue to produce varying headlines/undertones with the latest this morning from MOFCOM suggesting that the US and China agree to roll back on tariffs in different phases, proportional and based on Phase 1 agreement. This has prompted some risk-on plays but as ever we'll wait on any US response. Meanwhile the gloves are off in the UK General Election as campaigning officially gets underway but nothing that has yet to really impact on the Pound.

    GBPUSD has fallen further to test 1.2830 bids/support helped by some more USD demand and risk- off GBPJPY supply yesterday before bouncing this morning on that risk-on China trade news as GBPJPY also bounces to post 140.33. EURGBP still ranging too with support around 0.8600 again but failing to climb above 0.8620 ( GBPEUR 1.1600-1.1630).GBPJPY also continues to see good two-way trading and tightly bound.

    I will continue to rally-sell GBP as my preferred strategy overall too amid the ongoing Brexit/Election uncertainty but always happy to buy back in the dips still. A decent case for GBP longs again in the dips if this tight range continues so take your pick. In essence the general uncertainty and can kicking continues and for me that's still Pound negative. I make no apologies for trawling out the same thoughts because for me nothing has really changed.

    EURUSD has held 1.1050 on its own journey lower helped by some ongoing USD demand but also rallying this morning on some risk-on EURJPY demand. USDJPY fell to post 108.65 on yesterday's softer risk tones but has bounced back above 109.00 but capping again.USDCHF has posted fresh recent highs of 0.9939 as EURUSD fell and still remains underpinned helped by the current risk-on tones and given the SNB being ever vigilant.

    AUDUSD remains tightly bound amid the US-China uncertainty but holding 0.6860 and bouncing back above 0.6900 helped by the latest round of AUDJPY demand. USDCAD has found itself tightly bound again between 1.3150-1.3200 with uncertain oil price and USD outlook.

    Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.Don't forget too that I offer 1-2-1 mentoring if there's areas of trading these tight ranges that you might need some further help with. I develop your powers of trading discipline and psychology all learned in my 38 years in FX, including 20 as a leading market maker.

    One last housekeeping note today is to let you know I shall be taking a week's holiday (my first this year!) from 12-19 November and will not be turning any screens or phones on let alone publish any updates.

    Have a good day out there one and all.

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank rates: 09.15 GMT

    GBPUSD 1.2867

    EURGBP 0.8612

    EURUSD 1.1079

    GBPEUR 1.1611

    GBPAUD 1.8636

    GBPCAD 1.6937

    GBPNZD 2.0166

    GBPJPY 140.27

    GBPZAR 18.9548

    GBPHKD 9.9757

    USDJPY 109.03

    USDZAR 14.7264

    EURJPY 120.79

    EURCHF 1.1003

    EURHKD 8.5917

    AUDUSD 0.6903

    USDCAD 1.3166

    USDCHF 0.9932

    Read more...

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  • Risk variable again amid US-China trade talk uncertainty

    I bang on about the global uncertainty and variable risk sentiment every day and we've seen another pause for thought/reality check as US-China trade talks seem to hit another hurdle. Meanwhile the UK General Election officially gets underway as Parliament is dissolved and the posturing/extreme bs begins in earnest.

    GBPUSD failed above 1.2900 amid all that option expiry interest I warned about and has fallen to test 1.2850-60 bids/support before bouncing but still can't get back above 1.2900 for the moment.EURGBP still ranging too with support below 0.8600 again but sellers poised as the Euro weakens generally.GBPJPY also continues to see good two-way trading and tightly bound but underpinned still.

    I will continue to rally-sell GBP as my preferred strategy overall too amid the ongoing Brexit/Election uncertainty but always happy to buy back in the dips still. A decent case for GBP longs again in the dips if this tight range continues so take your pick. In essence the general uncertainty and can kicking continues and for me that's still Pound negative. I make no apologies for trawling out the same thoughts because for me nothing has really changed.

    EURUSD has fallen further amid some Deutsche Bank chitter-chatter to post 1.1067 helped by some ongoing USD demand while USDJPY has rallied further on yesterday's USD demand and the better risk tones and got through the decent offers at 109.00 only to fall again.USDCHF has posted fresh recent highs of 0.9933 as EURUSD falls and still looks underpinned given the SNB being ever vigilant.

    AUDUSD remains tightly bound amid the US-China uncertainty but holding 0.6880 bids/support again but sellers poised around 0.6925-30 still.USDCAD has found itself bound again but underpinned by softer oil prices.

    Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.

    Don't forget too that I offer 1-2-1 mentoring if you might need some further help with how to best assess current markets.

    Have a good day out there one and all.

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank rates: 08.28 GMT

    GBPUSD 1.2885

    EURGBP 0.8601

    EURUSD 1.1082

    GBPEUR 1.1625

    GBPAUD 1.8675

    GBPCAD 1.6955

    GBPJPY 140.48

    GBPZAR 19.0994

    GBPHKD 9.9897

    USDJPY 109.02

    USDZAR 14.8305

    EURJPY 121.83

    EURHKD 8.5933

    EURCHF 1.1000

    AUDUSD 0.6900

    USDCAD 1.3158

    USDCHF 0.9924

    Read more...

    0 comments

  • US Dollar demand as risk-on sentiment returns

    Equity and bond markets continue to look ok and with some positive tones out of the US-China trade talks and demand for EM currencies it's risk-on sentiment prevailing again for the moment. Nothing really new of note but we know how fickle these markets are so we'll continue to go with the flow and trade the still tight-ranges.

    GBPUSD failed above 1.2925 and has fallen back down to post 1.2877 but contained by some GBPJPY risk-on demand and that large (GBP1.5bln) option expiry interest today at 1.2900 of which £1.3bln are calls. A few offers now at 1.2900 then larger at 1.2925-30.EURGBP offers at 0.8650-60 still holding rallies but 0.8620 now equally a decent base as both core pairs fall amid the USD demand.GBPJPY also continues to see good two-way trading but currently underpinned again with some risk-on demand.

    I will continue to rally-sell GBP as my preferred strategy overall too amid the ongoing Brexit/Election uncertainty but always happy to buy back in the dips still. A decent case for GBP longs again in the dips if this tight range continues so take your pick. In essence the general uncertainty and can kicking continues and for me that's still Pound negative. UK Services PMI data came in slightly better than expected and has helped provide additional support on the lows but rallies still limited.

    EURUSD has fallen back to post 1.1112 amid USD demand but also supported a little by the EURJPY buying.

    USDJPY has rallied on the better risk/USD tones but still faces a challenge to get through decent offers/sell interest at 109.00.USDCHF has posted fresh recent highs of 0.9908 as EURUSD falls and remains underpinned although still subject the variable risk and USD tones.

    AUDUSD has found a little support from some risk-on AUDJPY demand but the pair has large (A$1.55bln) in expiries at 0.6900 today to keep range contained. The RBA left rates on hold as expected and kept their recent upbeat tones which also helped push the pair up from 0.6880 to test the 0.6925-30 offers.USDCAD has found itself still on the back foot amid the USD demand and firmer oil price tones.

    Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.

    Don't forget I offer 1-2-1 mentoring if there's areas of trading this latest volatility, or how to make best use of the order boards and expiries, that you might need some further help with. I develop your powers of trading discipline and psychology all learned in my 38 years in FX, including 20 as a market maker.

    Have a good day out there one and all.

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank Rate 08.32 GMT

    GBPUSD 1.2888

    EURGBP 0.8640

    EURUSD 1.1132

    GBPEUR 1.1573

    GBPAUD 1.8613

    GBPCAD 1.6916

    GBPJPY 140.27

    GBPZAR 18.9566

    GBPHKD 9.9921

    USDJPY 108.88

    USDZAR 14.7143

    EURJPY 121.19

    EURCHF 1.1020

    EURHKD 8.6332

    AUDUSD 0.6921

    USDCAD 1.3131

    USDCHF 0.9901

    Read more...

    0 comments

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