• Pound finds support amid hopes for fresh Brexit deal

    Yesterday Juncker gave GBP bulls hope that a new Brexit deal could yet be worked out and the algos duly delivered a spike despite others in the EU being less than embracing. Buy rumour sell fact? The full interview gets broadcast on Sunday. All out there still and with the UK Supreme Court ruling due anytime/early next week markets will continue to second guess.

    Elsewhere the usual suspects re oil, trade, CB second-guessing, and other areas of concern remain in the mix as another fickle Forex week ends and week-end risk looms.

    Yesterday saw the BOE keep everything on hold as expected and the subsequent dip once again held the pivotal 1.2430 area I have been highlighting. Bulls were duly encouraged and as per my BOE preview where I said there was an equal case for GBP longs we headed back up to test 1.2500 only to fail again before that Juncker-led spike from 1.2485 to break 1.2530, triggering stops to 1.2560 then 1.2581 before retreating to 1.2445 as I type. EURGBP broke down through 0.8800 bids/support triggering stops to post lows of 0.8785 (GBPEUR up to 1.1382). Euro dip-buyers again prevailing though with month-end demand once again approaching. GBPJPY has also seen some good two-way action this time holding 134.30 to post 135.75 in the general GBP rally.

    I will continue to GBP rally-sell as my preferred strategy amid all the uncertainty/indecision including Brexit/political fallout but happy to buy back in the dips as always.Rinse and repeat.Still no reason to change my view any time soon despite the latest bullish noises from Juncker. The UK Supreme Court will deliver its verdict on the legality of Johnson suspending Parliament and whether he misled the Queen and remains very much in the overall mix.

    EURUSD remains tightly bound with large option expiries helping to contain in 1.1020-70 range atm. while USDJPY duly held 108.75-80 earlier after its failure to hold above 108.00 and also remains range bound.USDCHF has also dipped through 0.9900 but finding support at the next layer of bids at 0.9880.

    AUDUSD has tested 0.6780 again but rallied to post 0.6809 before retreating and remains on the back foot amid expectations of more cutting action from the RBA.USDCAD tested 1.3300 but once again failed only to hold 1.3240 this time with good two-way pips to be had still amid the variable oil/USD sentiment.

    Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.

    Tomorrow the currently soggy Shrimpers (on and off the pitch) travel to MK Dons desperate for points having scored 3 goals away from home on Tuesday and still losing. Yep, times are definitely tough right now but we'll keep believing.

    Talking of which the Rugby Union World Cup starts today in Japan. Come on England !!

    Have a good day/weekend out there one and all.

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank Rate 08.10 BST

    GBPUSD 1.2562

    EURGBP 0.8807

    EURUSD 1.1065

    GBPEUR 1.1353

    GBPAUD 1.8463

    GBPCAD 1.6667

    GBPJPY 135.52

    GBPZAR 18.5631

    GBPHKD 9.7378

    USDJPY 107.85

    USDZAR 14.8124

    EURJPY 119.35

    EURCHF 1.0964

    EURHKD 8.5773

    AUDUSD 0.6803

    USDCAD 1.3267

    USDCHF 0.9908

    Read more...

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  • Fed cuts rates but jury still out

    Last night the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25% which was the lower end of expectations but left the door open for another cut in 2019 even if only 7 of the 17 FOMC members favour one. Cautious tones from Powell in the presser as expected and overall we've seen little change in USD pairs.

    I highlighted yesterday that we still have the Saudi oil headlines, Brexit and trade war concerns all in play and risk sentiment remains variable. The US Fed announcement was certainly not the only game in town. Earlier this morning the Bank of Japan left interest rates on hold but also left the door open for further easing if needed but that tired rhetoric has been rolled out for a long time now.

    GBPUSD held 1.2450 post-FOMC then found some Brexit/DUP support to test 1.2500-10 and I duly resold having pointed out on Twitter that the news wasn't that startling. We've since based around 1.2460. EURGBP finally broke down through 0.8845 bids/support triggering stops to post lows of 0.8821 (GBPEUR up to 1.1337) before running into Euro buyers again with month-end demand once again approaching. GBPJPY has also seen some good two-way action this time holding 134.50 to post 135.60.

    I remain GBP bearish overall and will continue to rally-sell as my preferred strategy amid all the uncertainty/indecision including Brexit/political fallout but happy to buy back in the dips as always.Rinse and repeat.Still no reason to change my view any time soon. Some caution required atm ofc with some inherent dip demand and the algos ever-poised for news bombs. The UK Supreme Court today will retire and deliver its verdict on the legality of Johnson suspending Parliament and whether he misled the Queen. Verdict could arrive in next 24 hours but the judges have not indicated when as yet.

    EURUSD found some dip demand again post-FOMC and has rallied to post 1.1065 this morning but remains tightly bound. USDJPY duly held 108.50 as per my post-FOMC tweet before falling to test 107.80 helped by some Yen risk-on supply too. BOJ left rates on hold and didn't rule out further easing as expected but Kuroda talk is cheap.USDCHF has also retreated from 0.9985 on some risk-off sentiment and softer USD this morning with EURCHF supply notable too.

    AUDUSD failed to get back above the pivotal 0.6830-35 area and duly retreated further to break down to test 0.6780 helped by some sustained AUDJPY selling and remains on the back foot amid expectations of more cutting action from the RBA.USDCAD duly held 1.3230 again only to fail above 1.3300 with good two-way pips to be had still.

    Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.

    Have a good day out there one and all.

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank Rate 08.33 BST

    GBPUSD 1.2478

    EURGBP 0.8848

    EURUSD 1.1046

    GBPEUR 1.1299

    GBPAUD 1.8391

    GBPNZD 1.9780

    GBPCAD 1.6584

    GBPJPY 134.89

    GBPZAR 18.3002

    GBPHKD 9.6742

    USDJPY 108.05

    USDZAR 14.6544

    EURJPY 119.34

    EURCHF 1.0965

    EURHKD 8.5612

    AUDUSD 0.6785

    USDCAD 1.3288

    USDCHF 0.9927

    Read more...

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  • US Dollar making its mind up as markets wait on Fed

    We've seen some general USD supply,helped by yesterday's US repo action which has led many to believe that greater QE measures are coming today along with a rate cut of at least 25bps and possibly 50bps. I'm not so sure and markets seem to reflect that uncertainty too with the Greenback underpinned again as Europe gets underway.

    Elsewhere we still have the Saudi oil headlines, Brexit and trade war concerns all in play and risk sentiment remains variable. The US Fed announcement at 18.00 GMT is certainly not the only game in town.

    GBPUSD duly held above 1.2380 yesterday then finally broke up through 1.2430-50 triggering stops to test above 1.2500 again amid the general USD supply only to retreat again this morning helped by some more Brexit bs. EURGBP failed into 0.8900 yesterday but still holding 0.8845-50 so there's your range for the moment until broken. GBPJPY has also seen some good two-way action once again holding 134.00 to test 135.30.

    I remain GBP bearish overall and will continue to rally-sell as my preferred strategy amid all the uncertainty/indecision including Brexit/political fallout but happy to buy back in the dips as always.Rinse and repeat.Still no reason to change my view any time soon. Some caution required atm ofc with some inherent dip demand and the algos ever-poised for news bombs. The UK Supreme Court today continues its deliberations on the legality of Johnson suspending Parliament and whether he misled the Queen. Verdict expected tomorrow. Meanwhile we have UK inflation data risk at 08.30 GMT today. Stop Press: Softer data sees GBP a little lower as I type.

    EURUSD found some good demand amid the USD selling yesterday and staged a solid recovery to post 1.1076 before retreating this morning. USDJPY duly held 108.00 but failed around 108.30 again amid the general USD selling but tempered by some Yen risk-on supply too. USDCHF has also moved back up to post 0.9954 with some help again from EURCHF demand.

    AUDUSD popped up to 0.6870 on the USD supply only to retreat and remains on the back foot amid expectations of more cutting action from the RBA.USDCAD was caught between the softer oil/USD combo and been ranging tightly with good two-way pips to be had still.

    Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.

    Have a good day out there one and all.

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank Rate 08.30 BST

    GBPUSD 1.2471

    EURGBP 0.8861

    EURUSD 1.1058

    GBPEUR 1.1283

    GBPAUD 1.8243

    GBPCAD 1.6543

    GBPJPY 134.99

    GBPZAR 18.2327

    GBPHKD 9.6684

    USDJPY 108.20

    USDZAR 14.6306

    EURJPY 119.62

    EURCHF 1.0998

    EURHKD 8.5694

    AUDUSD 0.6837

    USDCAD 1.3260

    USDCHF 0.9948

    Read more...

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  • Oil rises again and US Dollar underpinned too as Fed looms ever larger

    The fallout from Saturday's drone attack on Saudi Arabia's largest oil processing facility continued to play out yesterday with oil prices dropping back then spiking again amid much repercussion rhetoric playing on potential supply difficulties again. Risk plays have been variable amid all the uncertainty but the Greenback has been the favoured currency with renewed USD funding demand while we wait on the US Fed tomorrow evening.

    GBPUSD has continued its retreat to test 1.2400 this morning and EURGBP tested support around 0.8845-50 again only to rally to 0.8896 (GBPEUR down to 1.1251) on some renewed general Euro dip-demand this morning and that's helped cap GBPUSD as per my recent tweet.GBPJPY has also seen some good two-way action once again and testing lower 134.00 as I type.

    I remain GBP bearish overall and will continue to rally-sell as my preferred strategy amid all the uncertainty/indecision including Brexit/political fallout but happy to buy back in the dips as always.Rinse and repeat.Still no reason to change my view any time soon. Some caution required atm ofc with some inherent dip demand and the algos ever-poised for news bombs. Today the UK Supreme Court begins its deliberations on the legality of Johnson suspending Parliament and whether he misled the Queen. A potential bun fest when the result is known, probably on the 19th.

    EURUSD chewed through large bids at 1.1025-30, 1.10010 and 1.1000 after the option expiries rolled off but we've held 1.0980 so far and finding some general Euro demand atm. USDJPY duly held 107.50 on the general USD demand and has been climbing slowly back since to post 108.37 before retreating to 108.00.USDCHF has also moved back up to post 0.9941 with some help from EURCHF demand but tempered by the EURUSD so far today.

    AUDUSD has finally broken down through 0.6850 on some dovish tones from the RBA Minutes but has buyers still poised around 0.6830 then larger at 0.6800. USDCAD has found itself caught between the higher oil/USD demand combo and been ranging tightly again between 1.3230-60.

    Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.

    Have a good day out there one and all.

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank Rate 08.16 BST

    GBPUSD 1.2407

    EURGBP 0.8872

    EURUSD 1.1009

    GBPEUR 1.1270

    GBPAUD 1.8153

    GBPCAD 1.6437

    GBPJPY 134.23

    GBPZAR 18.3177

    GBPHKD 9.6192

    USDJPY 108.18

    USDZAR 14.7554

    EURJPY 119.07

    EURCHF 1.0936

    EURHKD 8.5352

    AUDUSD 0.6834

    USDCAD 1.3248

    USDCHF 0.9934

    Read more...

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  • Risk sentiment wobbles again on Saudi oil attack

    The week-end saw a drone attack on Saudi Arabia's largest oil processing facility removing 5% of world output at a stroke and oil prices jumped by 8$ to levels not seen since July. Risk-off plays greeted the FX market opening in Asia but we've seen some retracement since as the full implications unravel.

    We can expect some fragile times ahead again this week with Brexit and US-China trade spats still very much in play too.

    GBPUSD has continued its rally to post above 1.2500 a couple of times but tempered by some GBPJPY risk-off supply and large options rolling off today at 1.2500.Some further selling in early Europe which I've taken advantage of on the softer risk sentiment and reports that Johnson still very much embracing No-Deal Brexit. EURGBP has slipped down further to post 0.8846 (GBPEUR up to 1.1304) only to rally on the GBP retreat and now 0.8896 (1.1238).GBPJPY has also seen some good two-way action once again and posted 135.25 before retreating to test 134.00 on the better risk plays.

    I remain GBP bearish overall and will continue to rally-sell as my preferred strategy amid all the uncertainty/indecision including Brexit/political fallout but happy to buy back in the dips as always.Rinse and repeat.Still no reason to change my view any time soon. Some caution required atm ofc with some inherent dip demand and the algos ever-poised for news bombs.

    EURUSD failed above 1.1100 a few times on Friday and is currently testing decent support/bids between 1.1050-60 helped by some EURJPY and EURCHF supply. USDJPY had a gap down from 108.10 to look at 107.40 on the early Asia risk-off wobbles but climbing slowly back since.USDCHF also gapped down from 0.9900 to test 0.9860 bids/support but also now back up and posting 0.9903 as I type.

    AUDUSD continues to find a few buyers into 0.6850 but has sellers still poised between 0.6885-0.6900.USDCAD gapped lower on the oil price spike to test 1.3200 from 1.3280 but has rallied again as prices settle to post 1.3260.

    Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.

    The resurgent Shrimpers ( yeah,yeah I know !) earned their first point of the season (it should have been 3) and England's cricketers deservedly drew The Ashes series albeit with the Aussies already claiming the urn being the holders. Hey ho, Bring on 2021-22 !

    Have a good day/week out there one and all.

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank Rate 08.45 BST

    GBPUSD 1.2455

    EURGBP 0.8887

    EURUSD 1.1066

    GBPEUR 1.1250

    GBPAUD 1.8080

    GBPNZD 1.9480

    GBPCAD 1.6508

    GBPJPY 134.33

    GBPZAR 18.1998

    GBPHKD 9.6564

    USDJPY 107.88

    USDZAR 14.6379

    EURJPY 119.39

    EURCHF 1.0956

    EURHKD 8.5911

    AUDUSD 0.6878

    USDCAD 1.3257

    USDCHF 0.9899

    Read more...

    0 comments

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