• Positive start for the Pound as General Election looms ever nearer

    A new week and one that sees UK voters heading to the polling stations again on Thursday in a rare Winter election. As Monday opens so we're seeing the Pound underpinned and posting new recent highs as the polls point to a Tory majority government and the blinkered algos continue to not look at the alternatives but traders are going with the flow. Buy rumour sell fact? I still wouldn't rule it out.

    Elsewhere the US-China uncertainties continue in a week that also sees the latest interest rate/policy decisions for the US Federal Reserve and ECB on Wednesday and Thursday respectively.

    GBPUSD has now posted new 7-month highs of 1.3182 with EURGBP now finally falling through 0.8430 and 0.8400 to post 0.8393 lows. Pound rally tempered a little by some GBPJPY supply but underpinned still. EURGBP remains on the back foot helped by some general Euro supply with EURUSD trading tightly still but capped by option expiry interest again around 1.1100. GBPJPY has retreated again after once more failing above 143.00 and has been back testing bids at 142.50.

    Rally-selling GBP remains my preferred strategy overall but, as I've been warning for a while, I respect that some others (and the algos) see it differently at the moment. Remember we're ranging still so don't get too greedy whatever your bias. I continue to stay poised and sell when upside momentum fades but respecting the current demand still.

    EURUSD is holding above 1.1050 but capped into 1.1100 with another EUR 2bln in expiries in total rolling off today between 1.1070-80 and 1.1100-05.USDJPY has broken down through 108.50 on some softer risk sentiment but still not racing anywhere in a hurry for the moment with large expiry interest between 108.50-70 today. USDCHF continues to find dip demand helped by the EURUSD supply with EURCHF still ranging and the SNB being ever vigilant.

    AUDUSD has found itself tightly bound still between 0.6820-50 amid the variable risk and USD sentiment while

    USDCAD remains underpinned after the NFP/Canadian jobs reports double-whammy sent it sharply higher on Friday but tightly bound since.

    Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.

    Sad times continuing for the soggy Shrimpers who threw away a 2-0 halftime lead at Bristol to lose 4-2. A total of 6 hours driving to witness another capitulation. Not funny being a Southend fan these days but we live in hope, even if that is all we have left.

    Have a good day/week out there one and all.

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank rates: 08.35 GMT

    GBPUSD 1.3159

    EURUSD 1.1068

    EURGBP 0.8412

    GBPEUR 1.1888

    GBPAUD 1.9280

    GBPCAD 1.7438

    GBPJPY 142.74

    GBPZAR 19.2675

    GBPHKD 10.2021

    USDJPY 108.52

    USDZAR 14.6418

    EURJPY 120.07

    EURCHF 1.0954

    EURHKD 8.5819

    AUDUSD 0.6823

    USDCAD 1.3160

    USDCHF 0.9899

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  • Pause button pressed again as markets wait on NFPs

    After some decent moves across a number of pairs this week we've seen some consolidation in the past 24 hours as markets and algos wait on today's key US Non Farm Payroll/jobs data. Risk is variable again amid reports that US-China trade talks are still progressing ok but tempered by China saying they will take counter measures against recent sanctions imposed by the US on certain Chinese officials.

    Elsewhere the Pound has also paused for reflection after this week's strong gains with the General Election very much in focus and the outcome uncertain until the votes are actually counted. Meanwhile oil prices are underpinned but waiting on the outcome of the current OPEC meeting and we'll see then how much has already been priced in.

    GBPUSD had a run up to 1.3170 but EURGBP has held 0.8430 and that's also helped cap Cable along with some GBPJPY supply. EURGBP has bounced again from those 0.8430-35 bids and posted 0.8460 (GBPEUR down to 1.1808) but remains tightly bound as EURUSD clings to 1.100 with more option expiry interest there today. GBPJPY has retreated again after posting those 7-month highs and now testing bids at 142.50.

    Rally-selling GBP remains my preferred strategy overall but, as I've been warning for a while, I respect that some others (and the algos) see it differently at the moment. Remember we're ranging still so don't get too greedy whatever your bias. I continue to stay poised and sell when upside momentum fades but respecting the current demand still.

    EURUSD is holding above 1.1100 with another EUR 2.5bln in option expiries rolling off today this time between 1.1090-1125. USDJPY failed get through 109.00 yesterday capped by the expiries I highlighted but equally holding 108.50 for the moment. USDCHF continues to find demand around that 0.9850 support area but equally still can't get back above 0.9900 with EURCHF still finding a few sellers but the SNB ever vigilant.

    AUDUSD has found itself tightly bound still too between 0.6800-50 amid the variable risk sentiment. USDCAD remains on the back foot amid some general USD supply and the OPEC meeting underpinning oil prices and therefore supporting the Canadian $.

    Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.

    Don't forget too that I offer 1-2-1 mentoring if there's areas of trading these tight ranges, or how to make best use of the order boards and expiries, that you might need some further help with. I will help develop your powers of trading discipline and psychology all learned in my 38 years in FX, including 20 as a market maker.

    Remiss of me yesterday not to recognize the sad passing of England bowling legend Bob Willis who I had the pleasure and privilege of meeting on a few occasions. A thoroughly decent man who will be forever etched into Ashes history.

    Tomorrow sees the Shrimpers travel to Bristol Rovers now managed by two ex-Roots Hall legends but they won't be doing us any favours. We'll go with some heart though after a well-deserved midweek point at Burton.

    Have a good day/week-end out there one and all.

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank rates: 08.19 GMT

    GBPUSD 1.3148

    EURUSD 1.1108

    EURGBP 0.8448

    GBPEUR 1.1835

    GBPAUD 1.9209

    GBPCAD 1.7323

    GBPJPY 142.84

    GBPZAR 19.1711

    GBPHKD 10.1874

    USDJPY 108.64

    USDZAR 14.6166

    EURJPY 120.69

    EURCHF 1.0960

    EURHKD 8.6079

    AUDUSD 0.6844

    USDCAD 1.3176

    USDCHF 0.9866

    Read more...

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  • Pound still on a march higher as risk-on sentiment returns too

    We've seen the Pound make further gains having crossed into new territory this week as investors continue to back a Tory majority in next week's General Election and helped by some risk-on sentiment generally amid some better Phase I US-China trade deal tones. GBP rally sellers remain poised to jump on any uncertainty/hung Parliament outcome but for the moment the bulls are having their way.

    GBPUSD has now broken up to post 7-month highs of 1.3148 as momentum gathers pace and EURGBP falls to 2-year lows with GBPJPY breaking out of recent caps to post 143.17. Perfect storm for the Pound to strut its stuff but the jury remains out.EURGBP has broken down to test the 0.8430-35 support (GBPEUR resistance 1.1865) and remains on the back foot with the Euro generally looking lacklustre again. GBPJPY remains underpinned as I've been warning and now posted its own 7-month highs.

    Rally-selling GBP remains my preferred strategy overall but, as I've been warning for a while, I respect that some others (and the algos) see it differently at the moment. Remember we're ranging still so don't get too greedy whatever your bias. I will remain poised but no point standing in front of a moving truck as it rarely ends well!

    EURUSD broke up through 1.1100 but found a few sellers waiting again with EUR 2.5bln in expiries rolling off today between 1.1110-25. USDJPY has ranged tightly after holding 108.30-40 yesterday and the US-China impetus has seen it underpinned above 108.60 since but equally can't get through 109.00. USDCHF has also found demand around that 0.9850 support area but equally can't get back above 0.9900 with EURCHF still finding a few sellers amid the general Euro supply.

    AUDUSD has found itself underpinned again by some AUDJPY demand but tempered by AUDNZD selling as the Kiwi$ found support on the announcement of bank capital measures (not as severe as feared) and the RBNZ saying monetary policy was in hold mode. USDCAD has taken a tumble down to 1.3177 after the BOC yesterday left rates on hold as expected but with less dovish comments and that broke the back of the 1.3260 support which had held so well in recent days/weeks.

    Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.

    Don't forget too that I offer 1-2-1 mentoring if there's areas of trading these tight ranges, or how to make best use of the order boards and expiries, that you might need some further help with. I will help develop your powers of trading discipline and psychology all learned in my 38 years in FX, including 20 as a market maker.

    Have a good day out there one and all.

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank rates: 08.42 GMT

    GBPUSD 1.3138

    EURUSD 1.1088

    EURGBP 0.8445

    GBPEUR 1.1840

    GBPAUD 1.9205

    GBPCAD 1.7313

    GBPJPY 142.98

    GBPZAR 19.2502

    GBPHKD 10.1858

    USDJPY 108.87

    USDZAR 14.6602

    EURJPY 120.76

    EURCHF 1.0965

    EURHKD 8.6029

    AUDUSD 0.6835

    USDCAD 1.3187

    USDCHF 0.9889

    Read more...

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  • Perky Pound as Greenback stays on the back foot.

    We've now seen the Pound make gains across the board amid the ongoing US Dollar retreat as investors continue to back a Tory majority in next week's General Election. After the Euro had a decent start to the week it now seems it's the turn of GBP pairs to make some progress helped by some risk-on GBPJPY demand this morning but rally sellers remain poised.

    GBPUSD has now broken up through the 1.3030 offers/resistance after holding 1.2975-80 where I warned of bids building yesterday in a tweet after the initial failures above 1.3000. The pair has been helped this morning by some positive tones on US-China trade talks but more hot air without real substance. EURGBP has broken down through 0.8500 to test 0.8480 bids/support (GBPUSD up to 1.1789) as GBPUSD rallies. GBPJPY remains tightly bound but underpinned above 141.00 still despite a dip to test 140.80.UK Services PMI this morning came in better than the flash estimate but still below the 50 growth level and pointing to a quarterly 0.1% decline in UK GDP. GBP pairs mostly unchanged after accordingly.

    I will continue to rally-sell GBP as my preferred strategy overall too amid the ongoing Brexit/Election uncertainty but happy to buy back in the dips as ever. In essence the general uncertainty and can kicking continues and for me that's still Pound negative overall but I respect that some others (and the algos) see it differently). Remember we're ranging still so don't get too greedy whatever your bias. My USDJPY shorts provide a nice hedge as ever.

    EURUSD has levelled out having failed to break up through 1.1100 but similarly holding 1.1050 for the moment while USDJPY has continued its grind lower to post 108.42 and my rally shorts continue to hedge some GBPUSD shorts but we've seen an uptick to look at 108.80 this morning amid that US-China headline. USDCHF also remains on the back foot and has now tested 0.9850 support amid that ongoing EURCHF supply above 1.1000 that I've been highlighting. The SNB will remain ever vigilant though.

    AUDUSD has found itself in retreat again after some soft GDP data but some decent support at 0.6800 holding the falls so far.USDCAD continues to trade tightly with the general USD supply capping at 1.3320 but tempered by softer oil prices still and 1.3260 support.

    Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank rates: 08.45 GMT

    GBPUSD 1.3038

    EURUSD 1.1082

    EURGBP 0.8500

    GBPEUR 1.1760

    GBPAUD 1.9128

    GBPCAD 1.7344

    GBPJPY 141.61

    USDJPY 108.46

    EURJPY 120.22

    EURCHF 1.0930

    AUDUSD 0.6820

    USDCAD 1.3285

    USDCHF 0.9861

    Read more...

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  • US Dollar in retreat but jury remains out

    Yesterday saw some further risk-off sentiment which saw USDCHF and USDJPY suffer some decent losses (all relative ofc given current ultra-tight ranges) and we're still seeing some downward pressure this morning as European trading gets underway. Equities are trying to recover after yesterday's losses but the jury remains well and truly out.

    GBPUSD has now broken up through the 1.2950 offers/resistance helped this morning by the latest General Election poll so the good two-way business continues with sell interest at 1.3000 lurking again.EURGBP broke back above 0.8550 helped by some unusually large demand in EURUSD but lower again now at 0.8530 as GBPUSD plays catch up amid the USD supply. GBPJPY remains tightly bound but underpinned above 141.00 still.

    I will continue to rally-sell GBP as my preferred strategy overall too amid the ongoing Brexit/Election uncertainty but happy to buy back in the dips as ever. In essence the general uncertainty and can kicking continues and for me that's still Pound negative overall but I respect that some others (and the algos) see it differently). Remember we're ranging still so don't get too greedy whatever your bias.

    EURUSD had a good day after chewing its way through the the 1.1030 option expiry interest and holding gains helped by the general USD supply and the earlier PMI data. USDJPY had a decent fall to test 108.80-00 after those USD1.5bln in expiries rolled off at 109.50-52 and we're still down there now. USDCHF led the Greenback lower yesterday to test 0.9900 amid the EURUSD charge higher and that ongoing EURCHF supply above 1.1000 that I've been highlighting.

    AUDUSD has found itself on a charge higher to post 0.6860 helped by the USD selling and then RBA leaving rates on hold as expected but Governor Lowe disappointing the bears by once again pouring cold water on any immediate rate cuts/QE.USDCAD continues to trade tightly with the general USD supply tempered by softer oil prices and decent demand in the dips.

    Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.

    Tonight the Shrimpers of Southend journey north to face Burton Albion and we'll hope that whatever work is being done behind the scenes by our new manager will bear some fruit.

    Have a good day out there one and all.

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank rates: 08.14 GMT

    GBPUSD 1.2975

    EURUSD 1.1080

    EURGBP 0.8540

    GBPEUR 1.1711

    GBPAUD 1.8951

    GBPCAD 1.7252

    GBPJPY 141.60

    GBPZAR 19.0232

    GBPHKD 10.0595

    USDJPY 109.09

    USDZAR 14.6516

    EURJPY 120.91

    EURCHF 1.0975

    EURHKD 8.5898

    AUDUSD 0.6847

    USDCAD 1.3292

    USDCHF 0.9903

    Read more...

    0 comments

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