• Yen demand notable post-FOMC

    We've now had the latest US Fed FOMC interest rate/policy decision and algos/traders sold the Greenback on their now saying no rate hikes expected in 2019. I said yesterday to expect more dovish tones and that's been duly delivered. I repeat my long-held view that the Fed would struggle to hike rates this year and have, in any case, under-delivered on rate hike promises/projections over a few years now.

    We've seen a mixed bag USD-wise after the initial knee-jerk selling but unwinding of short JPY positions has been notable since with USDJPY lower and testing 110.30 support with EURJPY, GBPJPY and AUDJPY also lower and capping/driving down core pairs.Year-end Yen repatriation prob also helping as I've been highlighting in my client update

    After capping at 1.3250 GBPUSD has fallen again into the 1.3150-60 support area I've also been warning about helped by the GBPJPY supply while EURGBP has remained underpinned on the general GBP softness and now posted highs of 0.8667 (GBPEUR down to 1.1536)

    I remain GBP bearish overall and continue to rally-sell as my preferred strategy but I continue to see good two-way business. I repeat that political risk is huge in all scenarios and for me negates much of the No Brexit positive tones. PM May's statement last night was a desperate attempt to blame parliament for her own lack of delivery on Brexit and her time at No 10 is surely now up sooner rather than later. In any case she travels to Brussels today for an EU summit with Brexit delay discussions high on the agenda.

    EURUSD has been back down helped by that EURJPY selling to look at 1.1400 where $3bln of option expiries are notable today while USDJPY has fallen further to now test support at 110.30.

    USDCHF has held 0.9880-00 and rebounded to 0.9934 on the retreating EURUSD and inherent EURCHF dip demand still with the SNB ever-watchful. This morning they left rates on hold and repeated their intention to intervene to prevent significant appreciation of the Franc.

    AUDUSD held 0.7120-25 on the post-FOMC retreat and rallied only to halt at 0.7170 before falling back to 0.7140 on the AUDJPY supply. USDCAD again held the 1.3250 support area only to fail into 1.3320.

    Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.

    Have a good day out there one and all.

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank Rate 08.15 GMT

    GBPUSD 1.3174

    EURUSD 1.1407

    EURGBP 0.8658

    GBPEUR 1.1548

    GBPAUD 1.8434

    GBPCAD 1.7521

    GBPZAR 18.6674

    GBPHKD 10.2138

    USDJPY 110.36

    USDZAR 14.1835

    EURJPY 125.85

    GBPJPY 145.43

    AUDUSD 0.7145

    EURCHF 1.1317

    EURHKD 8.8447

    USDCAD 1.3301`

    USDCHF 0.9924

    Read more...

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  • Markets still in wait and see mode as FOMC decision looms

    Today at 18.00 GMT we get the latest US Fed FOMC interest rate/policy decision and markets remain understandably cautious. No change in rates but more dovish tones expected.Good two-way business continues across most currency pairs as Brexit and the other various global scenarios continue to play out/negate each othe.

    We've seen GBPUSD fail around 1.3280 again before dropping to 1.3212 amid reports that May will ask EU for a 3-month Brexit extension which would be less than the EU are reported to be keen on while many MPs are lobbying EU countries to refuse any extension at all. Once again though the delayed/No Brexit talk has not been taken positively with many commentators now talking about a General Election coming soon. I've warned of the political fallout for many months now as you all will be aware so let's see what actually transpires. EURGBP duly found support around 0.8530 (GBPEUR sellers at 1.1725) as the Pound retreated.

    I remain GBP bearish overall and continue to rally-sell as my preferred strategy but I continue to see good two-way business.

    EURUSD also continues to range tightly with variable EUR cross trading helping to keep the core pair contained as well as the FOMC uncertainty.USDJPY is also tightly bound helped by variable risk sentiment and ongoing GBPJPY supply/demand and we've seen a dip back down to test support at 111.30 while capping at 111.70.

    USDCHF also remains underpinned/tightly ranged amid the steady EURUSD and EURCHF while AUDUSD has broken down through 0.7080 support only to halt into the next decent tranche at 0.7050. Large option interest rolling off again today at 0.7100 to help keep it capped.

    USDCAD yesterday fell to test 1.3250 as oil prices rallied to 4-month highs but has since climbed back above 1.3330 as oil did a similar U-turn and the jury remains well and truly out still.

    Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.

    Have a good day one and all.

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank Rate 08.30 GMT

    GBPUSD 1.3222

    EURUSD 1.1338

    EURGBP 0.8577

    GBPEUR 1.1658

    GBPAUD 1.8660

    GBPCAD 1.7635

    GBPZAR 19.1951

    GBPHKD 10.2510

    USDJPY 111.59

    USDZAR 14.5090

    EURJPY 126.54

    EURHKD 8.7931

    GBPJPY 147.57

    AUDUSD 0.7083

    EURCHF 1.1345

    USDCAD 1.3341

    USDCHF 1.0006

    Read more...

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  • Hey, guess what? Yep, FX pairs still ranging

    Good two-way business continues across most currency pairs as the various global scenarios continue to play out/negate each other and markets continue to second guess.

    We've seen GBPUSD dip below 1.3200 briefly only to rally and fail around 1.3280 again. Yesterday the Speaker of the Commons told May she can't bring back her awful Withdrawal Agreement for another vote unless significant changes are made and that technically makes a clean Brexit more difficult if ever but hey, it's such a circus already who are we to keep guessing at the outcome.EURGBP has similarly been in hibernation amid the latest GBP downs and ups and downs.

    I remain GBP bearish overall and continue to rally-sell as my preferred strategy and buy back in the dips still but I continue to see good two-way business. I repeat also that political risk is huge in all scenarios and for me negates much of the No Brexit positive tones.

    EURUSD also continues in tight range mode with support from today's large option interest at 1.1300 and capped by natural sell interest and variable USD/risk sentiment still above 1.1350. USDJPY is still tightly bound helped by variable risk sentiment and ongoing GBPJPY supply/demand and we've seen a dip back down to now test 111.00 while capping into 111.50.

    In other Groundhog Day inertia USDCHF also remains underpinned/tightly ranged amid the steady EURUSD and EURCHF while AUDUSD gave up on the current 0.7120-25 ceiling and has been back to look at the 0.7080 support area .USDCAD also remains tightly packed in with good two-way interest at these lower levels of recent range.

    Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.

    Have a good day one and all.

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank Rate 08.28 GMT

    GBPUSD 1.3263

    EURUSD 1.1353

    EURGBP 0.8559

    GBPEUR 1.1682

    GBPAUD 1.8687

    GBPCAD 1.7669

    GBPZAR 19.0497

    GBPHKD 10.2836

    USDJPY 111.28

    USDZAR 14.3554

    EURJPY 126.34

    EURHKD 8.8029

    GBPJPY 147.57

    AUDUSD 0.7096

    EURCHF 1.1354

    USDCAD 1.3323

    USDCHF 1.0001

    Read more...

    0 comments

  • FX pairs ranging still as another week opens

    Groundhog Day/week in the UK and around the globe as another week in this ever fickle/fragile world of Forex gets underway.

    We've seen GBPUSD hold 1.3200 and rally only to fail in making headway above 1.3300 so far as the jury remains well and truly out amid May trying once again to get her Withdrawal Agreement with EU through parliament this previously.EURGBP has similarly held 0.8500 support (GBPEUR resistance/sellers at 1.1765) in retreat amid the latest GBP demand with large option expiry interest rolling off there today.

    I remain GBP bearish overall and continue to rally-sell as my preferred strategy and buy back in the dips still but I continue to see good two-way business as May tries once again to get her deal through parliament. I repeat also that political risk is huge in all scenarios and for me negates much of the No Brexit positive tones.Seems like markets are now taking some of that scenario on board but Pound still finding dip buyers overall for the moment.

    EURUSD continues in tight range mode with support from today's large EURGBP option interest and variable EURJPY direction amid uncertain risk sentiment still. USDJPY is still tightly bound helped by variable risk sentiment and ongoing GBPJPY supply/demand and we've seen a dip back down to test 111.30.

    USDCHF also remains underpinned/tightly ranged amid the steady EURUSD and EURCHF while AUDUSD also continues to find dip buyers after the failure into 0.7000 and softer USD/variable risk-on sentiment (AUDJPY demand) and we've now cleared out the 0.7100 resistance.USDCAD remains on the back foot with firmer oil prices and CAD/JPY dip demand still helping to put a bid into the Canadian%.

    Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.

    As always I wish you good trading.Let's continue to be careful out there and don't get greedy.

    Woeful display by the currently very soggy Shrimpers of Southend and we're now in a serious battle to avoid relegation. Fine line (just 2 points) between drop and survival though atm so we'll keep belieiving of course. Congrats to Wales on a wonderful 6 Nations Grand Slam but what a bonkers/riveting game between England/Scotland eh?

    Have a good day/week one and all.

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank Rate 07.40 GMT

    GBPUSD 1.3282

    EURUSD 1.1349

    EURGBP 0.8543

    GBPEUR 1.1703

    GBPAUD 1.8659

    GBPCAD 1.7673

    GBPZAR 19.1322

    GBPHKD 10.3037

    USDJPY 111.52

    USDZAR 14.4298

    EURJPY 126.54

    EURHKD 8.8066

    GBPJPY 148.14

    AUDUSD 0.7118

    EURCHF 1.1359

    USDCAD 1.3306

    USDCHF 1.0009

    Read more...

    0 comments

  • Jury still out as another week draws to a close

    A damp squib in the end last night after MPs voted down a motion for another referendum but did agree to an extension of Article 50 beyond 29 March.What the EU actually agrees to remains a major sticking point as May attempts to bring yet another "Meaningful Vote" before the Commons next week.

    Given all the on-going uncertainty we've seen an understandably muted reaction in GBP pairs but interesting still to note the lack of any decent rally that we've seen lately on seemingly delay/no Brexit positioning.Softer Pound the net result atm as I have expected/recommended.There's really not a lot more to report on that or other matters, and in any case in the wake of the awful atrocities in Christchurch has little gravitas right now anyway. There really are more important things in this world than FX markets.

    We've seen GBPUSD down to 1.3203 but capped at 1.3270 as the jury remains well and truly out, dazed and/or confused by all the Brexit bs this week. EURGBP has similarly been in tight mode.

    I remain GBP bearish overall and continue to rally-sell as my preferred strategy and buy back in the dips still ( I hope my tweets today gave you a good steer) but I continue to see good two-way business. I repeat also that political risk is huge in all scenarios and for me negates much of the No Brexit positive tones.Seems like markets are now taking some of that scenario on board.

    EURUSD continues in tight range mode as today sees a large heap of option expiries between 1.1285-1.1360 while USDJPY is still tightly bound helped by variable risk sentiment and ongoing GBPJPY supply/demand.

    USDCHF also remains underpinned/tightly ranged amid the steady EURUSD and EURCHF while AUDUSD is also tightly bound still and duly failed into 0.7100 again but supported at 0.7050.USDCAD remains on the back foot with firmer oil prices and CAD/JPY demand still helping to put a bid into the Canadian% as I've warned this week.

    Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.

    The struggling Shrimpers of Southend return to the hallowed Hall well and truly in a relegation battle now after a dismal defeat to fellow strugglers Scunthorpe on Tuesday. A must-win occasion tomorrow against bottom side AFC Wimbledon

    Have a good day and week-end one and all wherever yours takes you.

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank Rate 08.17 GMT

    GBPUSD 1.3225

    EURUSD 1.1324

    EURGBP 0.8561

    GBPEUR 1.1680

    GBPAUD 1.8663

    GBPCAD 1.7594

    GBPZAR 19.1260

    GBPHKD 10.2564

    USDJPY 111.69

    USDZAR 14.4453

    EURJPY 126.49

    EURHKD 8.7662

    GBPJPY 147.76

    AUDUSD 0.7087

    EURCHF 1.1355

    USDCAD 1.3298

    USDCHF 1.0026

    Read more...

    0 comments

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