• A mixed bag to begin another strange week

    Equity markets in Asia and early Europe have taken some positive stance on the "less deaths than expected" scenario from the UK,US and others but the reality check, for UK and GBP, at least, came wth news that PM Boris Johnson had been admitted to hospital for tests having failed to shrug off COVID 19 after 10 days.

    Since that news though we've mostly seen risk-on sentiment prevail but markets remain fragile. Today's OPEC/Russia meeting on oil production has been postponed until Thursday. Another strange week ahead and caution advised as ever.

    GBPUSD dipped to 1.2210 on the Boris news but has since rallied to 1.2323 on that better risk sentiment helped by GBPJPY demand but sellers, including me, prevailing again with a move back to 1.2280 but it remains a confused picture still for the moment. EURGBP has been up to 0.8863 (GBPEUR down to 1.1283) on the general GBP selling earlier but now back down testing 0.8780 (1.1390) again.GBPJPY found support at 132.30 but since been up to look at 134.50 amid some risk-on and USDJPY finding decent demand again to post to post 109.38.

    I stay poised to sell GBP rallies overall and buy back in the dips as ever but patience continues to be a virtue and entry level key as always. Weker Construction PMI just out but no surprise.

    USDJPY has found some decent dip demand again and now broken up through decent offers/res around 108.60 to post 109.38 helped by the better risk sentiment starting the week. EURJPY has rallied well from 117.00 to post 118.31 helped by the better risk sentiment and core pair dip demand but sellers still poised.EURUSD continues its up and down journey and now testing 1.0780 support again after capping at 1.0835.USDCHF has based around 0.9750 and since rallied to 0.9782 as I type as EURUSD falls and helped by some EURCHF dip demand still at 1.0540 with the SNB still in the frame as latest SNB sight deposit stats this morning prove.

    AUDUSD has found support at 0.5990 and now rallied to look at 0.6060 helped by some AUDJPY demand and EURAUD selling. USDCAD has been up to 1.4260 only to fall back to look at that 1.4080 support line again this morning helped by firmer oil and CADJPY demand but corrections on all those three to post 1.4141. We saw some sharp weakening in the SA Rand on Friday afternoon after another downgrade and the currency remains under pressure still.

    Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready to jump on moves with your orders as always. Caution advised as ever if you're not sure.

    Lots going on right now, and the foreseeable future, so don't forget that I offer 1-2-1 menor how to make best use of the order boards and expiries, that you might need some further help with.

    Let's continue to be careful out there in all things as ever. Staying safe must be our main priority still.

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank rates: 08.35 BST

    GBPUSD 1.2305

    EURUSD 1.0815

    EURGBP 0.8803

    GBPEUR 1.1360

    GBPAUD 2.0313

    GBPCAD 1.7349

    GBPJPY 134.34

    GBPZAR 23.3813

    GBPHKD 69.5401

    USDJPY 109.14

    USDZAR 19.0315

    EURJPY 118.11

    EURCHF 1.0566

    EURHKD 8.3979

    AUDUSD 0.6060

    USDCAD 1.4097

    USDCHF 0.9763

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  • US Dollar demand notable again

    We're seeing a few range boundaries creaking under some renwed USD demand in Asia and this morning as Europe gets underway along with soft PMI data pushing the Euro even lower. UK Services PMI just out also keeping pressure on the Pound.

    Yesterday's highlight, and some, was a Trump tweet that suggested an agreement between Saudi Arabia/OPEC and Russia to cut oil production by 10-15m barrels. Aimed at nipping some reported cheap oil reserve buying by China in the bud ? Certainly a strange one that had algos cranking oil and commodity currencies sharply higher before a reality check retreat. Oil still posted its largest one-day gains since 1991 and there are reports that there will be discussions on Monday that are helping to maintain a bid tone this morning but it promises to be a wild ride still.

    Today sees the release of the latest US NFP and wages report that comes on top of yesterday's huge 6.65mln weekly jobless claims. Global USD demand and US Fed still pumping up the volume though largely shrugging off the negatives for the moment at least. Crazy days indeed.

    GBPUSD had another look at 1.2475 before retreating once again to break that 1.2350 line to test 1.2300. EURGBP has fallen further to 0.8737 (GBPEUR up to 1.1444) and that EURGBP softness has helped provide some support for GBPUSD again too on the way down but reversing as I type.GBPJPY found support at 132.60 but since capped around 134.00 amid some risk-off but underpinned for the moment by USDJPY rebounding from another test of 107.00 to post 108.23.

    I stay poised to sell GBP rallies overall and buy back in the dips as ever. Obviously still seems to be some natural demand so patience continues to be a virtue and entry level key as always.

    USDJPY has found some decent dip demand again helped by that oil spike yesterday and now tested offers /res at 108.30 while EURJPY has dropped further on the general EUR supply and now posted new recent lows of 116.36 before bouncing but sellers still poised.EURUSD continues its journey lower and now tested 1.0780 support after that soggy PMI data earlier.USDCHF has based at 0.9660 and since rallied to 0.9773 as I type as EURUSD falls and helped by some EURCHF dip demand still at 1.0540 with the SNB still in the frame.

    AUDUSD had another spike yesterday but this time on that oil news which gave a general lift to all commodity currencies but we've retreated again to now post 0.6014 as I type. USDCAD tumbled to test 1.4080 again on the oil price reaction but since traded quite tightly as the questions on that 10-15m barrel cut continue.

    Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready to jump on moves with your entry/exit levels and orders as always. Caution advised as ever if you're not sure.

    Lots going on right now, and the foreseeable future, so don't forget that I offer 1-2-1 mentoring if there's areas of trading these volatile markets that you might need some further help with.

    Let's continue to be careful out there in all things as ever. Staying safe must be our main priority still. Make sure you get some rest over the week-end.

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank rates: 08.40 BST

    GBPUSD 1.2338

    EURUSD 1.0802

    EURGBP 0.8747

    GBPEUR 1.1421

    GBPAUD 2.0433

    GBPCAD 1.7454

    GBPJPY 133.43

    GBPZAR 23.0005

    GBPHKD 9.5594

    USDJPY 108.12

    USDZAR 18.7358

    EURJPY 116.83

    EURCHF 1.0548

    EURHKD 8.3701

    AUDUSD 0.6038

    USDCAD 1.4138

    USDCHF 0.9762

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  • Markets making their mind up again

    We've seen a few interesting moves on Day 1 of April but overall we've found some new ranges to play around in, for the moment at least, amid the variable, but still fragile, risk and USD sentiment.

    GBPUSD capped around 1.2440 a few times which of course was the old cap before that spike to 1.2473 but the retreat has been limited to 1.2365 this time, a support area I also highlighted on Twitter yesterday. Good two-way pips to be had for both bears and bulls in this new tight range but beware breaks as ever. EURGBP fell to test 0.8800 (GBPEUR up to 1.1375) on the generally weaker Euro and I was right to stay away from buying the dips as I warned in yesterday's update but has still rallied to 0.8870 before retreating yet again. That EURGBP softness has helped underpin GBPUSD too ofc. I hope the steer helped in your decision making.GBPJPY has now capped around 133.50 amid some risk-off selling on core pairs and with USDJPY continuing its journey lower to test 107.00.

    I stay poised to sell GBP rallies overall and buy back in the dips as ever. Obviously still seems to be some natural demand so patience continues to be a virtue and entry level key as always.

    USDJPY has fallen to look at 107.00 amid the risk off but finding some decent dip demand down there again. I remain a rally seller while respecting the 107.00 support area atm.EURJPY has dropped further on the risk-off sentiment and that general EUR supply and testing 117.00-20.EURUSD capped into 1.1000 and has now tested 1.0900 bids/support on the retreat helped by risk off plays and that general Euro supply still. Rebound capped at 1.0970.USDCHF has based at 0.9630 then 0.9650 and since rallied to 0.9684 as EURUSD falls and helped by some EURCHF dip demand at 1.0560 again. SNB still ever watchful.

    AUDUSD had a 120 pip flash spike from 0.6065 to 0.6185 just ahead of the 4pm London fix. Maybe coincidental but it's a very illiquid pair and doesn't need extreme amounts to send it sharply higher or indeed lower as we saw into the month-end Tokyo fix. We've retreated to test 0.6060 again since those rapid highs.USDCAD capped into 1.4280 and has retreated on the softer USD/firmer oil price but since found a base at 1.4080.

    Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready to jump on moves with your entry/exit levels and orders as always. Caution advised as ever if you're not sure.

    Lots going on right now, and the foreseeable future, so don't forget that I offer 1-2-1 mentoring if there's areas of trading these volatile markets that you might need some further help with.

    Let's continue to be careful out there in all things as ever. Staying safe must be our main priority still.

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank rates: 08.30 BST

    GBPUSD 1.2407

    EURUSD 1.0935

    EURGBP 0.8815

    GBPEUR 1.1344

    GBPAUD 2.0313

    GBPCAD 1.7516

    GBPJPY 133.06

    GBPZAR 22.5930

    GBPHKD 9.6215

    USDJPY 107.27

    USDZAR 18.1958

    EURJPY 117.27

    EURCHF 1.0573

    EURHKD 8.4816

    AUDUSD 0.6105

    USDCAD 1.4122

    USDCHF 0.9671

    Read more...

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  • Risk-off sentiment returns

    A new month of uncertainty is underway and we're seeing some risk-off sentiment prevailing in Asia and early European trading. Certain correlations have not been so evident in recent days/weeks so let's see what pans out.

    A lot will depend ofc on the spread/accelration or reduction in Covid-19.We must take it one day at a time. Don't overthink and let the flow be your friend. Think about position size too in order to be able to cope with the volatility/whipsaws and yet stay in the game to back your view. I wish you a profitable and safe month ahead.

    GBPUSD capped at 1.2473 yesterday in the aftermath of some London 4pm fix volatility that I warned about here and on Twitter. Duly resold some shorts and now taken some profit on the latest retreat to 1.2330.EURGBP fell to 0.8860 (GBPEUR up to 1.1286) on the generally strong GBP demand with little evidence of any final-day month-end demand as I had warned here. GBPJPY capped around 134.50 and since at 133.80 amid the risk-off selling on core pairs too.

    I stay poised to sell GBP rallies and buy back in the dips as ever. Obviously still seems to be some natural demand which I respect of course but the overall picture remains less clear still imho. Patience continues to be a virtue and entry level key as always.

    USDJPY has fallen to look at 107.25 amid the risk-off but finding some decent dip demand down there again while EURJPY has dropped below 118.00 on the risk-off sentiment and some general EUR supply after capping into 119.50.EURUSD capped into 1.1050 and now testing 1.0930 support on the retreat helped by risk off plays and that general Euro supply.USDCHF based at 0.9600 from 0.9685 highs but since rallied to 0.9665 as EURUSD falls and helped by some EURCHF dip demand at 1.0560-70 again. SNB still ever watchful.

    AUDUSD has retreated to test 0.6052 after capping yesterday at 0.6172 helped lower by some renewed ADJPY supply.USDCAD cpped above 1.4330 but since found a base at 1.4020 amid softer oil still and rallied to 1.4209 amid the general USD demand and risk-off CADJPY supply.

    Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready to jump on moves with your entry/exit levels and orders as always. Caution advised as ever if you're not sure.

    Lots going on right now, and the foreseeable future, so don't forget that I offer 1-2-1 mentoring if there's areas of trading these volatile markets that you might need some further help with.

    Let's continue to be careful out there in all things as ever. Staying safe must be our main priority still.

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank rates: 08.20 BST

    GBPUSD 1.2349

    EURUSD 1.0973

    EURGBP 0.8884

    GBPEUR 1.1254

    GBPAUD 2.0336

    GBPCAD 1.7514

    GBPJPY 132.83

    GBPZAR 22.2757

    GBPHKD 9.5742

    USDJPY 107.56

    USDZAR 18.0384

    EURJPY 118.03

    EURCHF 1.0573

    EURHKD 8.5074

    AUDUSD 0.6069

    USDCAD 1.4180

    USDCHF 0.9633

    Read more...

    0 comments

  • US Dollar demand again but jury still out

    A flash crash at the Japanese fixing saw some large USD demand sending GBP and AUD sharply lower. Sources say expect more USD demand into/at London's 4PM fix with particular impact versus GBP, AUD, CAD, and NOK.

    Elsewhere risk sentiment is mixed as Tuesday arrives after some positive Chinese PMI, if you believe it given that other reports show that "Based on cremation figures, Wuhan residents estimate more than 40,000 have died, compared with an official toll of 2,535". That number would tie in with a Chinese website that was printing up the alleged real figs at the time but taken down by govt every day. I leave you to be tne judge but we should remain concerned as to further COVID fallout both here and globally.

    GBPUSD capped at 1.2440 yesterday with the level surviving a London 4pm fix rally from 1.2375 but stayed in tight range until that flash crash down to 1.2242 in Asia, proving once again how fickle these markets are. EURGBP fell to 0.8875 (GBPEUR upto 1.12620) on the strong GBP demand. Not sure now about any month-end demand left so let's see what the market wants to do with it. GBPJPY found support around 133.00 yesterday and on the GBP flash dump so that's our line in the sand now but since holding 134.20 on the rebound. .

    I stay poised to sell GBP rallies and buy back in the dips as ever. Obviously still seems to be some natural demand which I respect of course but the overall picture remains less clear still imho. Today's London fix will be very interesting.Patience is a virtue and entry level key as always.

    USDJPY has risen to 108.73 amid the USD demand and some risk-on sentiment but finding sellers again while EURJPY has found a base again at 118.80 but rallies limited to 119.75 amid the mixed risk and USD sentiment.EURUSD capped into 1.1100 and now tested 1.0980 support on the retreat/USD demand .USDCHF based at 0.9560 and currently back up to 0.9640 helped by some EURCHF dip demand at 1.0570 which seems a decent line in the sand. SNB in the frame again imho.

    AUDUSD had looked underpinned like GBP but also crashed in that Japanese fix from 0.6214 to 0.6075 before finding dip demand again. USDCAD has found a base now at 1.4120 amid softer oil still and rallied to 1.4200 amid the general USD demand.

    Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready to jump on moves with your entry/exit levels and orders as always. Caution advised as ever if you're not sure.

    Lots going on right now, and the foreseeable future, so don't forget that I offer 1-2-1 mentoring if there's areas of trading these volatile markets or how to make best use of the order boards and expiries, that you might need some further help with.

    Let's continue to be careful out there in all things as ever. Staying safe must be our main priority still.

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank rates: 08.50 BST

    GBPUSD 1.2336

    EURUSD 1.0990

    EURGBP 0.8912

    GBPEUR 1.1222

    GBPAUD 2.0010

    GBPCAD 1.7500

    GBPJPY 133.63

    GBPZAR 22.1425

    GBPHKD 9.5641

    USDJPY 108.27

    USDZAR 17.9455

    EURJPY 119.08

    EURCHF 1.0593

    EURHKD 8.5222

    AUDUSD 0.6167

    USDCAD 1.4182

    USDCHF 0.9632

    Read more...

    0 comments

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