• Pound tumbles further as Carney casts doubt on May rate hike

    Hopes/expectations by many of a BOE interest rate hike next month despite the softer UK wages and inflation data took a bigger hit yesterday when Bank of England governor Carney made it clear that while he expected rates to go up it wasn't necessarily going to be in May.

    I have long argued that a combination of softer data, peaking inflation, insufficient wage growth and rising household debt does not fit well in a rate hike scenario. Throw in Brexit uncertainty and you have a heady cocktail. I firmly believe, as I've said for many months, that the BOE's desire/need to hike rates is to allow for wiggle room to cut again when the next crisis arrives, and that will be sooner rather than later.

    GBPUSD fell from 1.4200 to 1.4080 on the news late yesterday afternoon and has now fallen further this morning to 1.4035. Support expected into 1.4000 but sellers will continue to be poised to sell any rallies. Initial areas 1.4080-1.4100 then 1.4120-50.

    Having been sold off down through 0.8700 yesterday on option-related EURUSD selling EURGBP has been back up to 0.8792(GBPEUR down to 1.1374). Sell interest around 0.8800 has been in place for a while and providing good resistance again. Overall too the Pound has made losses across the board.

    EURUSD has been down to 1.2323 on that option contract interest I mentioned yesterday and remains capped between 1.2350-80 while USDJPY has cleared out the 107.50 sell interest to post 107.73 but itself is capped by large option interest at 108.00

    USDCHF has found good support in the dips again with the SNB never far away to prevent the Franc from strengthening too far and has climbed back over 0.9700.EURCHF also remains underpinned and has now cleared 1.2000 for the first time since the SNB removed the CHF cap in January 2015. Buyers of the Franc at these levels are notable though as I mentioned yesterday.

    The Aussie, NZ and Canadian $ have all come under pressure again too with commodity prices still making their mind up and US$ demand generally prevailing again.

    Fickle and fragile trading conditions still as the jury remains out across the board so get you orders in to take full advantage of these (limited) moves.

    Tomorrow the mighty Shrimpers of Southend United return to the hallowed Hall in search of a return to form and 3 points. Bring it on!

    Have a great week-end out there one and all

    Interbank Rate 08.40 BST

    GBPUSD 1.4042

    EURUSD 1.2334

    EURGBP 0.8782

    GBPEUR 1.1385

    USDJPY 107.53

    USDCAD 1.2673

    USDCHF 0.9709

    GBPAUD 1.8227

    GBPCAD 1.7798

    GBPCHF 1.3642

    GBPZAR 16.8385

    GBPHKD 10.8867

    EURHKD 9.5623

    GBPSGD 1.8433

    Twitter: @MSPFX @MikePatersonFX

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  • Pound remains on the back foot but dip demand noted

    The Pound is still finding sellers but given the rise earlier in the week dip demand is understandably being seen for the moment with hopes of a BOE interest rate hike next month not being ruled out just yet despite the softer UK wages and inflation data.

    GBPUSD has now found support around 1.4180 but with EURGBP holding 0.8700 (GBPEUR 1.1495). Overall the Pound still finds on the back foot with sellers still poised on GBPUSD between 1.4230-50. A clear break of 1.4175-80 should see a test of 1.4130-50.

    EURUSD has held 1.2350 but failing to get back over 1.2400 with large option expiries today very much in play. USDJPY has nudged back up to test 107.50 but once again run into good sell interest, particularly from Japanese exporters.

    USDCHF has found good support in the dips again with the SNB never far away to prevent the Franc from strengthening too far but the pair failing to hold over 0.9700.EURCHF remains underpinned and still testing 1.2000 for the first time since the SNB removed the CHF cap in January 2015. I still expect the SNB to maintain their presence as ideally they want USDCHF higher with 35% of their reserves are in USD and looking a little soggy versus the last revaluation. Buyers of the Franc at these levels are notable though.

    The Aussie and NZ are both feeling the love again on some commodity strength and a bit of catch-up play but sellers lurking still. The Canadian $ currently finding some sellers after strong gains recently.

    Fickle and fragile trading conditions still as the jury remains out across the board so get you orders in to take full advantage of these (limited) moves.

    Have a good day out there one and all

    Interbank Rate 08.26 BST

    GBPUSD 1.4201

    EURUSD 1.2387

    EURGBP 0.8722

    GBPEUR 1.1464

    USDJPY 107.29

    USDCAD 1.2611

    USDCHF 0.9681

    GBPAUD 1.8204

    GBPCAD 1.7905

    GBPCHF 1.3747

    GBPZAR 16.9347

    GBPHKD 11.0100

    EURHKD 9.6040

    GBPSGD 1.8575

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  • Pound in retreat again as the reality-check kicks in

    What goes up invariably comes back down at some point and currently true for the Pound.Yesterday I warned of rarefied air for GBP pairs and that sellers were poised. Cue softer wages data and now this morning's weaker inflation report and markets are having second thought on a BOE rate hike nailed in next month. Forex is nothing if not fickle.

    GBPUSD has now posted 1.4185 this morning from 1.4320 in early European trading with EURGBP back up through 0.8700 (GBPEUR down to 1.1480 ). Overall the Pound finds itself out of favour again as traders unwind those overbought positions of recent days

    EURUSD has fallen to 1.2350 as a little USD demand returns while USDJPY has nudged back up to 107.39.USDCHF has found good support in the dips yet again and now posted 0.9697 with the SNB never far away to prevent the Franc from strengthening too far. EURCHF has headed to fresh highs of 1.1983 the first time since they removed the 1.2000 CHF cap in January 2015. I would expect the SNB to maintain their presence as ideally they want USDCHF higher still even if EURCHF may be near target. 35% of their reserves are in USD and looking a little soggy versus the last revaluation.

    AUD, NZD and CAD have all pared some recent gains amid the general USD demand but all making good ground versus the retreating Pound.

    Fragile and fickle trading conditions prevailing still so get your orders in to take full advantage.

    Have a good day out there one and all

    Interbank Rate 09.40 BST

    GBPUSD 1.4211

    EURUSD 1.2364

    EURGBP 0.8700

    GBPEUR 1.1490

    USDJPY 107.30

    USDCAD 1.2580

    USDCHF 0.9683

    GBPAUD 1.8330

    GBPCAD 1.7876

    GBPCHF 1.3757

    GBPZAR 17.0263

    GBPHKD 11.0177

    EURHKD 9.5893

    GBPSGD 1.8623

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  • US Dollar supply helps Pound higher again

    It's been another good 24 hours for the Pound as Trump's accusing Russia and China of currency manipulation/devaluation sends another signal to markets that he appears to prefers a weaker Greenback. He has the same problem though as UK with the US being a net importer and running a trade deficit. Lower currency valuation does not help that.

    GBPUSD has now posted 1.4377 though this morning, through the previous 2018 highs, with EURGBP selling notable again to push the pair down further to 0.8644 (GBPEUR up to 1.1592). Overall the Pound finds itself the best of an indifferent bunch again with focus also still on the likelihood of a interest rate hike in May. Rarefied air up here for the Pound but market is what market does. Sellers poised though.

    Softer UK wages data just out, tempered a little by better unemployment rate but still a concern for the BOE if they want to proceed with a rate hike next month.

    EURUSD has also risen to post 1.2400 while USDJPY has fallen once again to test 106.80 support areas that I've highlighted previously.USDCHF has dipped a little further to 0.9580 but still supported in the dips with the SNB never far away to prevent the Franc from strengthening too far and EURCHF heading back up through 1.1900 for the first time since they removed the 1.2000 CHF cap in January 2015

    AUD, NZD and CAD have all enjoyed some gains amid the USD supply.

    Fragile and fickle trading conditions prevailing still so get your orders in to take full advantage.

    Have a good day out there one and all

    Interbank Rate 08.40 BST

    GBPUSD 1.4367

    EURUSD 1.2402

    EURGBP 0.8632

    GBPEUR 1.1582

    USDJPY 106.98

    USDCAD 1.2562

    USDCHF 0.9595

    GBPAUD 1.8453

    GBPCAD 1.8046

    GBPCHF 1.3784

    GBPZAR 17.2372

    GBPHKD 11.1387

    EURHKD 9.6185

    GBPSGD 1.8802

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  • Pound shrugs off Syrian strike to start the week in positive mode

    The combined US, UK and French attack on Syria continues to make headlines but no impact on prices now as markets shrug off the risk-sentiment wobble with disdain.

    GBPUSD held 1.4150 on Friday and has now posted 1.4280 this morning as GBPJPY buying now prevails along with EURGBP selling to push the pair down to 0.8644 (GBPEUR up to 1.1570). Overall the Pound finds itself the best of an indifferent bunch again with focus switching back to the likelihood of a interest rate hike in May, although much of that will be factored in by now. But hey, these markets are nothing if not fickle.

    EURUSD has risen from its own retreat to post 1.2369 while USDJPY once again fails above 107.50 but now holding 107.00.USDCHF has fallen back a little this morning to post 0.9600 but with the SNB never far away with EURCHF underpinned too.

    AUD, NZD and CAD have all had mixed time of it again amid the turnarounds in risk sentiments and with no real trend although all gently underpinned still.

    Fragile and fickle trading conditions prevailing still so get your orders in to take full advantage.

    On Saturday the currently indifferent Shrimpers of Southend United were due to play at Oxford but failed to turn up.Or so it seemed as a shockingly inept show saw them lose 2-0 against even poorer oppo. Congrats to England's netball team though who notched up a brilliant win to beat Australia and take Gold on the Gold Coast.

    Have a good week out there one and all

    Interbank Rate 09.10 BST

    GBPUSD 1.4276

    EURUSD 1.2363

    EURGBP 0.8656

    GBPEUR 1.1550

    USDJPY 107.18

    USDCAD 1.2617

    USDCHF 0.9601

    GBPAUD 1.8376

    GBPCAD 1.8018

    GBPCHF 1.3711

    GBPZAR 17.2240

    GBPHKD 11.0674

    EURHKD 9.5822

    GBPSGD 1.8730

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