• Cautious start to the week with markets still fragile

    Equities and oil are generally softer as European trading gets underway and we've seen some risk-off sentiment again in these ever-fickle and mood-swing times. Meanwhile the Pound has found sellers again helped by GBPJPY and GBPCHF supply and amid the Brexit uncertainty with no clear plans emerging still as I've been warning.

    GBPUSD has capped around the 1.2900 area and fallen this morning to post lows of 1.2836 while EURGBP has found support around 0.8800 (GBPEUR sellers at 1.1365) and rallied to post 0.8861 (GBPEUR down to 1.1285.

    I still remain GBP bearish overall and happy to jump on rallies as I still see the greater risk to the downside until proven different.

    EURUSD remains tightly bound in a 1.1350-1.1400 range amid risk and USD uncertainty while USDJPY has run into sellers again helped by the decent sell interest at 110.00 and some risk-off JPY buying but still finding some dip demand. USDCHF and EURCHF remain underpinned but equally finding rally sellers too also helped by some safe-haven CHF demand returning.

    AUDUSD continues to trade tightly also with China and Gold in the mix while USDCAD has rallied again with Canadian$ weakenng as oil prices wobble

    Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.

    Great 4-0 win from the mighty Shrimpers of Southend on Saturday with a display and all four goals right up there with the best we've seen all season. Onwards n upwards!

    Have a good week one and all.

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank Rate 08.34 GMT

    GBPUSD 1.2847

    EURUSD 1.1374

    EURGBP 0.8852

    GBPEUR 1.1295

    GBPAUD 1.7946

    GBPCAD 1.7070

    GBPHKD 9.9603

    USDJPY 109.64

    EURJPY 124.70

    GBPJPY 140.90

    AUDUSD 0.7163

    EURCHF 1.1325

    USDCAD 1.3284

    USDCHF 0.9956

    EURHKD 8.8222

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  • Pound underpinned as Brexit options play out

    Equities and oil are generally higher as European trading gets underway and we've seen some risk-on sentiment prevail with JPY and CHF sellers notable in these ever-fickle and mood-swing times. Meanwhile the Pound continues to find a bid in the aftermath of the No Confidence motion win by May, helped by GBPJPY and GBPCHF demand but much uncertainty remains.

    I've been warning about caution being required on the Pound atm and I tweeted a few times yesterday that GBP looked underpinned even though I was still jobbing from the short side to good effect (old habits die hard!). GBPUSD duly rallied but held the key 1.2920 area until after London markets had closed but it wasn't long before the ongoing demand saw 1.2950 cleared and then posted highs of 1.2996 before the large offers at 1.3000 that I've been highlighting did their job.

    EURGBP has posted lows of 0.8765 (GBPEUR up to 1.1410) but since bounced to post 0.8808 (1.1343) as I type.

    I still remain GBP bearish overall and happy to jump on rallies then job back in the dips as I still see the greater risk to the downside.I repeat,again, that the current developments and price action should rightly make those with GBP exposure cautious still as there is still much uncertainty and story to unravel yet.

    EURUSD remains a little fragile but dip demand noted again around 1.1380 while USDJPY has been underpinned by risk-on JPY selling and duly broken up through 109.00 to post highs of 109.56 so far.USDCHF remains underpinned on the risk-on sentiment and SNB support factor with EURCHF finding dip-demand now at 1.1280 and 1.1300 but equally rally sellers still lurking.

    AUDUSD held around 0.7150 with the help of some good dip demand and we've been back up to look at 0.7200-10 only to retreat with sellers still lurking. Aussie $ remains fragile with China/USDCNH still casting its shadow.USDCAD has retreated further to test bids/support around 1.3250 with CADJPY demand notable and oil prices firming.

    Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.

    Tomorrow the currently indifferent Shrimpers of Southend travel north to Bradford (without me this time) in search of at least a morale-boosting away draw after last week's dismal display. I'll be cheering on from somewhere on the South Coast.

    Have a great week-end one and all wherever yours takes you.

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank Rate 08.28 GMT

    GBPUSD 1.2944

    EURUSD 1.1387

    EURGBP 0.8802

    GBPEUR 1.1359

    USDJPY 109.45

    EURJPY 124.68

    GBPJPY 141.64

    AUDUSD 0.7180

    EURCHF 1.1326

    USDCAD 1.3275

    USDCHF 0.9942

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  • Risk sentiment sours again as markets remain fragile

    Equities and oil lower initially lower as European trading got underway as the world remains in a state of flux and some. Risk-off sentiment generally prevails again and we're seeing some safe-haven plays with JPY in demand more so than Swiss Francs with the SNB ever watchful. Meanwhile the Pound continues to trade tightly in the aftermath of May's No Confidence motion win by 325-306. Lots of hot air/promises atm on where they go next with much negotiation still to be done. US ADP employment change the main data focus today at 13.30 GDP

    GBPUSD has found dip buyers into 1.2830 again this morning after yet another failure into 1.2900 while EURGBP has a few bids still building around 0.8830 (GBPEUR sellers at 1.1325) and has survived another test.

    I remain GBP bearish overall and happy to jump on rallies then buy back in the dips.

    EURUSD has had another wobble lower to post fresh recent lows of 1.1371 but dip demand noted again while

    USDJPY duly found sellers above 109.00 again helped by the risk-off sentiment .

    USDCHF remains underpinned despite some increased risk-off sentiment with EURCHF finding dip-demand again now into 1.1270 but equally finding rally sellers still too.

    AUDUSD has fallen again to post new recent lows of 0.7147 but some dip demand around 0.7150 as I've been highlighting and that's helping to contain losses but the Aussie $ remains fragile with China/USDCNH still casting its shadow. USDCAD has rallied above 1.3300 on a lower oil/CAD-JPY selling combo but currently retreating as I type as we see risk plays return in last few minutes with equities and oil steadying.

    Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.

    I wish you a good day ahead.

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank Rate 08.14 GMT

    GBPUSD 1.2848

    EURUSD 1.1387

    EURGBP 0.8868

    GBPEUR 1.1276

    USDJPY 108.72

    EURJPY 123.78

    GBPJPY 139.56

    AUDUSD 0.7153

    EURCHF 1.1291

    USDCAD 1.3301

    USDCHF 0.9818

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  • Jury still out on the Pound after Brexit vote defeat

    Further to my update last night we've seen some good two-way business for GBP pairs after May's comprehensive defeat as algos and traders try and second-guess the next moves. Lots of talk about delay to Brexit and even No Brexit (I've covered that scenario/end-game for May/EU previously) and that's helped to underpin Pound pairs after the initial wobble. May and her government face a No Confidence vote at 19.00 GMT today but currently it's widely expected she will survive it with the DUP and others pledging to support her this time, if only to protect their current political sway and therefore not wanting a General Election.

    GBPUSD posted lows of 1.2668 last night but has since been back up to 1.2895 this morning and is currently finding dip buyers into 1.2850 I remain GBP bearish overall and happy to jump on rallies then buy back in the dips. The current developments and price action should rightly make GBP traders cautious still but there is still much uncertainty and story to unravel yet whilst needing to respect the current demand.

    EURGBP has been down this morning to 0.8843 (GBPEUR up to 1.1309) before finding a few Euro buyers/Pound sellers again.

    EURUSD continues to find some dip demand after holding 1.1380 but similarly still struggling to get back above 1.1420-30 for the moment while USDJPY duly found support into 108.30 again and has rallied to test 108.75-80 once more.

    USDCHF remains tightly bound but underpinned with EURCHF finding some dip-demand again into 1.1250 but equally rally sellers too while AUDUSD has also been contained in the 0.7180-7220 range I highlighted yesterday with China/USDCNH still casting its shadow. USDCAD has fallen back to test 1.3250 again after another failure into 1.3300 and still largely being pulled around by oil prices.

    Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.

    I wish you a good day ahead one and all.

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank Rate 08.11 GMT

    GBPUSD 1.2872

    EURUSD 1.1402

    EURGBP 0.8857

    GBPEUR 1.1287

    GBPAUD 1.7905

    GBPCAD 1.7085

    GBPHKD 9.9796

    USDJPY 108.61

    EURJPY 123.88

    GBPJPY 139.86

    AUDUSD 0.7204

    EURCHF 1.1275

    USDCAD 1.3251

    USDCHF 0.9881

    EURHKD 8.8417

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  • Pound in focus again as a journey into the unknown begins

    So, today around 19.00 GMT we have the "Meaningful Vote" on May's Brexit proposal. Plenty of evidence to suggest she'll lose it but the Commons will be debating various amendments prior and so we'll never say never, as always in these fickle times and markets. As I said yesterday the truth of the matter right now is that there is no certain outcome to any of it, win or lose, and the various scenarios/speculation will continue to play out over the next days/weeks.

    Pound traders are in for a busy time but as I reminded followers in a tweet yesterday, try and forget all the hot air. Some of the news will be GBP positive and some negative. No Brexit may be regarded as positive but the political fall out and civil unrest that will accompany it will leave investors still hedging their bets. Some of you may think I'm being stubborn here, being a long time GBP bear, but I really don't see any firm reason to change my view yet. Bear or bull just pick your entry/exit levels and let the algos do the knee-jerk work. Ours is not to reason why, ours is just to sell and buy.

    GBPUSD is now finding dip buyers into 1.2850 and sellers around the 1.2920 area I mentioned yesterday.

    EURGBP has a few bids still building at 0.8875-80 (GBPEUR sellers 1.1265) for the moment. I remain GBP bearish overall and happy to jump on rallies then buy back in the dips.

    EURUSD continues to find some dip demand into 1.1450 but similarly still struggling to get back above 1.1500. while USDJPY duly found support into 108.00 again and has rallied to post 108.75 on some general USD demand but continues to trade tightly. USDCHF remains tightly bound with EURCHF finding some dip-demand into 1.1230 as expected but equally rally sellers too.

    AUDUSD has also been contained in a 0.7180-7220 range and I don't see that changing much anytime soon while

    USDCAD has fallen back to test 1.3250 having failed above 1.3280 again and still largely being pulled around by oil prices.

    Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.

    I wish you a good day ahead.

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank Rate 08.23 GMT

    GBPUSD 1.2874

    EURUSD 1.1461

    EURGBP 0.8903

    GBPEUR 1.1232

    GBPAUD 1.7864

    GBPCAD 1.7078

    GBPHKD 9.9788

    USDJPY 108.65

    EURJPY 124.51

    GBPJPY 139.85

    AUDUSD 0.7212

    EURCHF 1.1266

    USDCAD 1.3259

    USDCHF 0.9832

    EURHKD 8.8844

    Read more...

    0 comments

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