• Steady as she goes as December gets underway

    First of all I wish to pay respect to the tragic events on London Bridge last Friday and once again we are reminded that we live in fragile times. It all puts chasing the ace in FX markets in proper context.

    Only 10 days now to the UK General Election and the polls overall still show an uncertain outcome. Ever thus, and the various permutations will not be known until the votes are counted despite polls/conjecture. Elsewhere US-China trade talks continue to grab a few headlines also of an uncertain nature but risk sentiment for the moment seems happy that some sort of deal will be made eventually. Still some downside risk though imho.

    GBPUSD has duly found sellers/resistance into 1.2950 yet again and retreated/gapped lower in Asia to test 1.2900 so the two-way business continues albeit in a tight range. EURGBP has held 0.8500 again after a retreat once the month-end BUBA demand was completed but equally can't get back above 0.8550 for the moment. GBPJPY remains tightly bound but underpinned above 141.00 still.

    I will continue to rally-sell GBP as my preferred strategy overall too amid the ongoing Brexit/Election uncertainty but happy to buy back in the dips as ever. In essence the general uncertainty and can kicking continues and for me that's still Pound negative overall but I respect that others (and the algos) see it differently). Remember we're ranging still so don't get too greedy whatever your bias.

    EURUSD remains on the back foot and tightly bound still surrounded by on going option expiry interest with EUR 1.4bln today between 1.0995-1.1005 and 1.5bln tomorrow at 1.1030 but helped a little this morning by some better PMI data. USDJPY remains underpinned but equally tightly bound with buyers at 109.30 and sellers 109.80.USDCHF remains underpinned too but rallies still tempered above 1.0000 by decent offers and some ongoing EURCHF supply above 1.1020 with the Euro on the back foot overall.

    AUDUSD continues in its 0.6750-0.6800 range while USDCAD continues to trade tightly too underpinned by the general USD demand but failing above 1.3300 again.

    Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always. Don't forget too that I offer 1-2-1 mentoring if there's areas of trading these tight ranges, or how to make best use of the order boards and expiries, that you might need some further help with. I will help develop your powers of trading discipline and psychology all learned in my 38 years in FX, including 20 as a market maker.

    An excellent double ton from England's skipper offers a chance versus New Zealand in the 2nd Test but weather likely to interfere. We'll live in hope though.

    Have a good day/week out there one and all.

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank rates: 08.40 GMT

    GBPUSD 1.2903

    EURUSD 1.1013

    EURGBP 0.8533

    GBPEUR 1.1716

    GBPAUD 1.9026

    GBPCAD 1.7149

    GBPJPY 141.52

    GBPZAR 18.9485

    GBPHKD 10.0052

    USDJPY 109.66

    USDZAR 14.6874

    EURJPY 120.78

    EURCHF 1.1014

    EURHKD 8.5398

    AUDUSD 0.6782

    USDCAD 1.3289

    USDCHF 0.9999

    Read more...

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  • All a yawn still as another month closes

    Markets continue to make their mind up/count down to Xmas and we're seeing little by way of any momentum still as November ends. A touch of feast or famine about FX moves at the moment, and indeed for a while, as we tend to fumble around in ultra-tight ranges then have a move of varying degree before consolidating again. Once upon a time we might have expected to see some volatility in thin liquidity given the US Thanksgiving or any key holiday, and we still yet might given any month-end flows left in the pipe, but in these days of robot-reactive rather than trader-proactive moves (as in my day) we must sadly resign ourselves to ongoing tight ranges.

    All the more reason then to be ready with your preferred entry/exit levels and be ready to jump on any moves of note as I always preach. Don't get greedy or impatient and don't over-analyze. In these markets natural flows are more relevant/important than ever whether it be option expiries, order boards, M&A et al so keep it simple and literally go with the flow.

    Talking of which GBPUSD duly found sellers/resistance into 1.2950 yesterday and retreated to test 1.2890-00 where decent size (GBP700m is influential in these tight markets) option expiry support lay in wait but we've failed to get back above 1.2925 offers amid some general USD demand prevailing still. EURGBP has held the 0.8500 support but holding so far too with EUR1.4bln now in expiries rolling off today between 00-20 and with the last of the month-end BUBA demand in play and providing further support. GBPJPY remains underpinned but tightly bound and lower again after it's recent spike to 141.87.

    I will continue to rally-sell GBP as my preferred strategy overall too amid the ongoing Brexit/Election uncertainty but happy to buy back in the dips as ever. In essence the general uncertainty and can kicking continues and for me that's still Pound negative overall but I respect that others (and the algos) see it differently). Remember we're ranging still so don't get too greedy whatever your bias.

    EURUSD remains on the back foot and tightly bound around 1.1000 still surrounded by ongoing option expiry interest. Today sees EUR1.4bln between 1.0980-00 and 1.3bln at 1.1025-30 again. USDJPY remains underpinned but equally tightly bound around 109.50. USDCHF remains underpinned too but rallies still tempered into 1.0000 by decent offers and some ongoing EURCHF supply above 1.1000 with the Euro on the back foot overall.

    AUDUSD held 0.6750 and has popped up to test 0.6780 but sellers still poised while USDCAD continues to trade tightly but underpinned by the general USD demand.

    Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.Don't forget too that I offer 1-2-1 mentoring if there's areas of trading these tight ranges, or how to make best use of the order boards and expiries, that you might need some further help with. I will help develop your powers of trading discipline and psychology all learned in my 38 years in FX, including 20 as a market maker.

    No football for the soggy Shrimpers given our lack of participation in the FA Cup but let's hope England's cricketers can fare a little better over the w-e down in New Zealand.

    Have a good day/weekend out there one and all.

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank rates: 08.45 GMT

    GBPUSD 1.2906

    EURUSD 1.1005

    EURGBP 0.8526

    GBPEUR 1.1727

    GBPAUD 1.9043

    GBPCAD 1.7149

    GBPJPY 141.40

    GBPZAR 18.8791

    GBPHKD 10.0021

    USDJPY 109.54

    USDZAR 14.6289

    EURJPY 120.57

    EURCHF 1.0996

    EURHKD 8.5292

    AUDUSD 0.6777

    USDCAD 1.3284

    USDCHF 0.9990

    Read more...

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  • Perky Pound again on positive poll and better risk sentiment

    The much anticipated/hyped YouGov MRP poll was published last night and showed the UK Tory government with a majority of 68. Cue algos in thin liquidity pushing the Pound higher and it remains underpinned this morning as I type but with decent rally-sell interest tempering further gains.

    Elsewhere the algos have shrugged off Trump signing the HK Bill and markets are focusing on some positive tones from the US-China trade talk headlines although nothing new or of real substance still. That in turn is producing some better risk-sentiment and hence JPY and CHF supply further adding to the GBP demand but some North Korea missile-launch interest reported this morning may have some tempering impact.

    With the US Thanksgiving Day holiday today/tomorrow, along with month-end trading in the same moment, we might reasonably expect some volatility amid the thinner liquidity conditions so be warned, and be careful.

    GBPUSD found support at 1.2850 yesterday amid that expiry interest congestion I warned about and has rallied post-poll to 1.2952 but sellers there prevailing for the moment. EURGBP has fallen to test 0.8500 support (GBPEUR resistance 1.1765) but holding so far too. We have over EUR1bln in expiries rolling off tomorrow at 0.8500 and with the usual month-end BUBA demand in play and providing further support.GBPJPY remains underpinned and has now broken out of recent topside resistance on the YouGov poll/risk sentiment double whammy to post 141.87.

    I will continue to rally-sell GBP as my preferred strategy overall too amid the ongoing Brexit/Election uncertainty but happy to buy back in the dips as ever. In essence the general uncertainty and can kicking continues and for me that's still Pound negative overall but I respect that others (and the algos) see it differently). Remember we're ranging still so don't get too greedy whatever your bias.

    EURUSD remains on the back foot but tightly bound still. Decent bids still around 1.1000 helping to support for the moment with those EUR 2bln in expiries yesterday also providing demand as I warned. USDJPY remains underpinned but equally finding rally sellers now around 109.50 again as the range stays tight.USDCHF remains underpinned too but rallies still tempered the 1.0000 by offers and some EURCHF supply above 1.1000 with the Euro on the back foot overall.

    AUDUSD remains on the back foot with that recent option expiry support now out the way but helped a little by some AUDJPY demand. USDCAD continues to trade tightly but underpinned by the general USD demand and those 1.3260 bids.

    Don't forget too that I offer 1-2-1 mentoring if there's areas of trading these tight ranges, or how to make best use of the order boards and expiries, that you might need some further help with. I will help develop your powers of trading discipline and psychology all learned in my 38 years in FX, including 20 as a market maker.

    Have a good day out there one and all.

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonF

    Interbank rates: 08.13 GMT

    GBPUSD 1.2933

    EURUSD 1.1012

    EURGBP 0.8513

    GBPEUR 1.1743

    GBPAUD 1.9117

    GBPCAD 1.7190

    GBPJPY 141.49

    GBPZAR 19.0994

    GBPHKD 10.0269

    USDJPY 109.41

    USDZAR 14.7627

    EURJPY 120.45

    EURCHF 1.0997

    EURHKD 8.5386

    AUDUSD 0.6764

    USDCAD 1.3293

    USDCHF 0.9989

    Read more...

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  • US Dollar demand prevailing but still going nowhere in a hurry.

    Once again it's more of the same ol' story out there as markets and algos wait to be inspired but we've seen some general USD demand and risk-on sentiment prevail over the past 24 hours amid positive US-China trade talk tones.

    GBPUSD has held 1.2820 once again on its latest retreat and that remains a decent line in the sand still with 1.2920 on the topside.EURGBP remains tightly bound but with the usual month-end BUBA demand now in play and providing some support. GBPJPY also continues to see good two-way trading amid the variable risk plays and as GBPUSD retreats counter USDJPY rallies.

    I will continue to rally-sell GBP as my preferred strategy overall too amid the ongoing Brexit/Election uncertainty but happy to buy back in the dips as ever. In essence the general uncertainty and can kicking continues and for me that's still Pound negative overall. Remember we're ranging still so don't get too greedy whatever your bias.

    EURUSD remains on the back foot but tightly bound still. Decent bids around 1.1000 helping to support for the moment with over EUR 2bln in option expiries between 1.0995-00 today while USDJPY remains underpinned but equally finding rally sellers poised around 109.20-30 again as the range stays tight.USDCHF remains underpinned still on the stronger USD/risk combo but tempered again by some EURCHF supply with the Euro generally on the back foot.

    AUDUSD remains on the back foot with Lowe's comments yesterday capped by those option expiries at 0.6800 and falling back in Asia again on reports of anticipated QE next year but support still at 0.6760-70.USDCAD continues to trade tightly too amid the variable USD/risk sentiment but firm oil prices helping to temper the dip support and now broken down through those 1.3280 bids.

    Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always. Don't forget too that I offer 1-2-1 mentoring if there's areas of trading these tight ranges, or how to make best use of the order boards and expiries, that you might need some further help with. I will help develop your powers of trading discipline and psychology all learned in my 38 years in FX, including 20 as a market maker.

    Have a good day out there one and all.

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank rates: 08.25 GMT

    GBPUSD 1.2843

    EURUSD 1.1009

    EURGBP 0.8572

    GBPEUR 1.1665

    GBPAUD 1.8944

    GBPCAD 1.7046

    GBPJPY 140.18

    GBPZAR 18.9389

    GBPHKD 9.9572

    GBPNZD 1.9982

    USDJPY 108.16

    USDZAR 14.7412

    EURJPY 120.16

    EURCHF 1.0985

    EURHKD 8.5359

    AUDUSD 0.6780

    USDCAD 1.3274

    USDCHF 0.9978

    Read more...

    0 comments

  • Ranging still as jury remains out

    Yes folks, it's definitely more of the same ol' story out there as markets and algos wait to be inspired. Comments from Fed's Powell and reported positive vibes on US-China trade talks have done little to get prices moving but we've seen GBP rallies capped by some wobbly General Election polls for the UK Tory government.

    I'll happily repeat what I said yesterday to help hammer home the point/s.I believe that fragile and fickle conditions continue to prevail globally overall but we can only trade what's in front of us. As I also repeat on many occasions, don't over-analyze and don't get greedy. FX pairs going nowhere in a hurry while all the global uncertainty remains unresolved.

    GBPUSD rallied yesterday helped by some GBPJPY and GBPCHF risk-on demand but has held 1.2920 and that has become a decent line on the topside now as we continue to range tightly with 1.2820 having previously supported the downside. EURGBP retreated to post lows of 0.8523 (GBPEUR up to 1.1731) amid yesterday's GBP demand and general on-going Euro supply but has since bounced to 0.8560 (GBPEUR down to 1.1677) as GBP falls again this morning and with the usual month-end BUBA demand now in play. GBPJPY also continues to see good two-way trading amid the variable risk plays.

    I will continue to rally-sell GBP as my preferred strategy overall too amid the ongoing Brexit/Election uncertainty but happy to buy back in the dips as ever. In essence the general uncertainty and can kicking continues and for me that's still Pound negative overall. Remember we're ranging still so don't get too greedy whatever your bias.

    EURUSD remains on the back foot but tightly bound still with 1.1000 support holding for the moment. USDJPY remains underpinned but equally finding rally sellers poised, this time around 109.20 again as the range stays tight.USDCHF remains underpinned still on the stronger USD/risk combo and with the SNB being ever vigilan but tempered again by some EURCHF supply with the Euro generally on the back foot.

    AUDUSD remains on the back foot but tightly bound with a few option expiries at 0.6800 now in play today along with RBA governor Lowe currently speaking. USDCAD continues to trade tightly too around 1.3300 amid the variable USD/risk sentiment but firm oil prices helping to temper the dip support.

    Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.

    Don't forget too that I offer 1-2-1 mentoring if there's areas of trading these tight ranges, or how to make best use of the order boards and expiries, that you might need some further help with. I will help develop your powers of trading discipline and psychology all learned in my 38 years in FX, including 20 as a market maker.

    Have a good day out there one and all.

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank rates: 08.28 GMT

    GBPUSD 1.2870

    EURUSD 1.1015

    EURGBP 0.8557

    GBPEUR 1.1687

    GBPAUD 1.8991

    GBPCAD 1.7134

    GBPJPY 140.19

    GBPZAR 19.0322

    GBPHKD 9.9782

    USDJPY 108.91

    USDZAR 14.7958

    EURJPY 119.96

    EURCHF 1.0995

    EURHKD 8.5378

    AUDUSD 0.6778

    USDCAD 1.3311

    USDCHF 0.9983

    Read more...

    0 comments

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