• US data casts doubts on Fed rate cut

    Strong revisions to the US Retail Sales on Friday eventually saw a decent rally in the US Dollar as hopes of an imminent interest rate hike this week faded but the jury still remains out. The FOMC make their latest announcement this Wednesday so we haven't got long to wait but it should be a lively week ahead regardless. Th uncertainty means we have on-going risk-off sentiment prevailing.

    GBPUSD has fallen back to post lows of 1.2573 helped by some GBPJPY supply and the on-going political risk as the Tory Party leadership contest continues. EURGBP continues to see good two-way business but tightly bound with EURUSD also falling in rapid fashion. GBPJPY has also found the sellers prevailing still as risk-off sentiment continues but support at 136.30 holding the falls so far.

    I remain GBP bearish overall and continue to rally-sell as my preferred strategy amid all the uncertainty/indecision including Brexit/political fallout but happy to buy back in the dips as always as ranges remain tight.

    EURUSD has finally cleared out some of the dip demand as bulls turned and ran for cover after the US data and ECB noises on inflation and we've tested good support at 1.1200. USDJPY held 108.00 on Friday with the dip demand I mentioned and was happy to stage a decent rally only to fail at 108.70 helped by renewed Yen demand. USDCHF also staged a decent rally as EURUSD retreated but still tightly bound overall as EURUSD and EURCHF both find the expected dip demand.

    AUDUSD is still finding sellers on the bleaker domestic outlook and rate cut scenarios along with some good AUDJPY risk-off supply.USDCAD staged a decent rally again on the general USD demand and as the oil price rally faded combined with some good CADJPY selling again.

    Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.

    Have a good day/week out there one and all.

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank Rate 08.19 BST

    GBPUSD 1.2577

    EURUSD 1.1207

    EURGBP 0.8911

    GBPEUR 1.1220

    GBPAUD 1.8303

    GBPCAD 1.6873

    GBPZAR 18.6033

    GBPHKD 9.7509

    USDJPY 108.56

    USDZAR 14.7890

    EURJPY 121.67

    EURCHF 1.1194

    EURHKD 8.6910

    GBPJPY 136.54

    AUDUSD 0.6872

    USDCAD 1.3415

    USDCHF 0.9985

    Read more...

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  • All a little uncertain out there still

    Yes I know I keep banging on about fragile risk sentiment but we live in a fragile world and now we've seen the second attack in a month on tankers at the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz. The US is blaming Iran as tensions in the Middle East continue to rise. Oil and Gold both rallied strongly. Today's main data risk comes in the form of US Retail Sales at 12.30 GMT.

    Meanwhile Boris Johnson confirmed his position as the favourite to win the Tory leadership contest and thus become UK PM and while the Pound found some initial comfort the reality check has since kicked in and we've seen GBP losses helped by EURGBP firming again and GBJPY once more in retreat.

    GBPUSD once again failed above 1.2700 and this time not even testing 1.2720-30 let alone 1.2750-60 as the sell interest kicked in and we're and testing yesterday's lows of 1.2662.EURGBP continues to see good two-way business in a tight range with dips happily bought and rallies equally sold. GBPJPY has also found the sellers prevailing amid the core pairs turning lower again helped by the softer risk sentiment.

    I remain GBP bearish overall and continue to rally-sell as my preferred strategy amid all the uncertainty/indecision including Brexit/political fallout but happy to buy back in the dips as always as ranges remain tight.

    EURUSD today has very large option expiry interest again at 1.1300 and that's preventing the pair from moving too far and we've seen the retreat hold 1.1265-70 on a couple of occasions. USDJPY has retreated again on the renewed Yen demand but still finding some decent dip buyers while USDCHF is still tightly bound as EURUSD and EURCHF both find the expected dip demand with the SNB ever watchful.

    AUDUSD is still finding sellers on the bleaker domestic outlook and interest rate cut scenarios along with some good AUDJPY risk-off supply. Yesterday's option expiries also duly capped rallies. USDCAD staged a decent rally again as the oil price rally faded combined with some good CADJPY selling.

    Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.

    Have a good day/week-end out there one and all.

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank Rate 08.42 BST

    GBPUSD 1.2668

    EURUSD 1.1284

    EURGBP 0.8909

    GBPEUR 1.1223

    GBPAUD 1.8353

    GBPCAD 1.6892

    GBPZAR 18.7934

    GBPHKD 9.8215

    USDJPY 108.18

    USDZAR 14.8422

    EURJPY 122.07

    EURCHF 1.1207

    EURHKD 8.7512

    GBPJPY 137.02

    AUDUSD 0.6900

    USDCAD 1.3339

    USDCHF 0.9932

    Read more...

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  • Pound and Euro feel the heat

    US CPI data came in a bit softer than expected but that hasn't been the main story in the past 24 hours as we've seen the Pound and Euro retreat once again. First we saw the rejection of an attempt to block No-Deal Brexit in parliament followed swiftly by Trump aiming his trade issue sights on Germany/EU and down came those currencies helped by softer risk sentiment once again. Meanwhile the Aussie $ continues to look soft with a weaker than expected jobs report helping it on its way to test recent lows again.

    GBPUSD rallied well as EURGBP retreated and helped by USD supply only to fail at the 1.2750-60 sell interest and fall back and we were soon heading back down to test the 1.2720-30 pivot area. Then came the Brexit vote news and we plunged to test the 1.2680 support where we held a few times only to fail at 1.2700 and now posting fresh lows of 1.2662.

    EURGBP rallies keep running into sellers as I highlighted yesterday and we saw a good test of the 0.8870 bids ( GBPEUR sellers 1.1275) before rebounding. GBPJPY has also found the sellers prevailing as I've been recommending amid the core pairs turning lower again helped by softer risk sentiment.

    I remain GBP bearish overall and continue to rally-sell as my preferred strategy amid all the uncertainty/indecision including Brexit.

    EURUSD large option expiry interest yesterday that I warned about helped contain range and pair remained underpinned for a while until failure to progress higher made Euro bulls a little uncomfortable with sellers in other pairs too and as the Trump trade tariff noises came in the pair was poised for a decent correction which we have duly had to test 1.1280.

    USDJPY finally broke down through 108.25-30 on the USD supply/Yen demand combo but still finding some decent dip demand while USDCHF is still finding some dip demand as EURUSD retreats but failing to advance above 0.9960 sell interest as EURCHF also turns lower. The SNB this morning left interest rates on hold and repeated their "highly valued Franc" and " will continue to act in FX markets as necessary" mantra .No surprises to any of my readers.

    AUDUSD showed no sign of rallying yesterday albeit tightly bound and I noted in my update that sellers remained poised on the bleaker domestic outlook. Cue softer jobs data and down we came in Asian trading to test the strong 0.6900 demand/support. USDCAD staged a decent rally (all relative in these tight FX times) on softer oil but making its mind up still having failed into 1.3350 as oil price found dip demand again.

    Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.

    Have a good day out there one and all.

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank Rate 08.30 BST

    GBPUSD 1.27683

    EURUSD 1.1297

    EURGBP 0.8911

    GBPEUR 1.1222

    GBPAUD 1.8337

    GBPCAD 1.6881

    USDJPY 108.31

    EURJPY 122.36

    EURCHF 1.1218

    GBPJPY 137.34

    AUDUSD 0.6914

    USDCAD 1.3313

    USDCHF 0.9933

    Read more...

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  • Risk sentiment fragile again

    Another hump day and with it comes some weaker risk sentiment amid Hong Kong protests over changes in Chinese extradition laws. US CPI data risk at 12.30 GMT also adding to the uncertainty given the current market paranoia over potential Fed rate cuts and FX pairs continue to trade tightly.

    GBPUSD found some dip support around 1.2680 yesterday then found further support after some relatively decent wages/jobs data and has now finally broken back up through the 1.2730 resistance after a few good holds.EURGBP rallies keep running into sellers and now dipping back down through 0.8900 (GBPEUR up through 1.1235) as I type adding to the general bid under GBP. GBPJPY remains range-bound.Underpinned again with core pairs both finding dip demand but sellers remain poised.

    I remain GBP bearish overall and continue to rally-sell as my preferred strategy amid all the uncertainty/indecision including Brexit but respecting the current demand and therefore happy to buy back in the dips as always.

    EURUSD has large option expiry interest again today at 1.1300, 1.1325 and 1.1350 which should help contain range but the pair still looks underpinned for the moment helped by EURCHF and EURJPY dip demand. USDJPY failed at the 108.80 resistance helped by softer risk and USD but similarly finding support around 108.30 still. USDCHF is finding some dip demand despite the the EURUSD demand with EURCHF making steady progress higher supported by the usual dip demand with the SNB ever casting their shadow as I repeatedly point out.

    AUDUSD is still making its mind up and tightly bound with some Gold-rally support but equally sellers remaining poised on the bleaker domestic outlook while USDCAD remains on the back foot having failed above 1.3300 but tightly bound with support into 1.3230 still.

    Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.

    Have a good day out there one and all.

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank Rate 08.27 BST

    GBPUSD 1.2731

    EURUSD 1.1335

    EURGBP 0.8903

    GBPEUR 1.1231

    GBPAUD 1.8307

    GBPCAD 1.6911

    GBPJPY 137.92

    GBPZAR 18.7494

    GBPHKD 9.8703

    USDJPY 108.35

    USDZAR 14.7223

    EURJPY 122.82

    EURCHF 1.1230

    EURHKD 8.7884

    AUDUSD 0.6953

    USDCAD 1.3285

    USDCHF 0.9907

    Read more...

    0 comments

  • Pound under pressure again as jury remains out

    Soggy UK data yesterday combined with Brexit/political uncertainty are all combining to undermine the Pound again as I have long warned. Meanwhile elsewhere we've seen a little better risk-sentiment return amid the PBOC acting to support the Yuan after its recent slide.All still very fragile though and we should expect more swings on the riskometer.

    GBPUSD remains on the back foot after yesterday's soggy data and has now broken back down through 1.2700 and the rally-sell strategy is playing out well again. EURGBP has rallied further on the current GBP supply helped by some inherent EUR demand and has posted highs of 0.8933 having finally broken back up through 0.8900-20. GBPJPY remains range-bound.Underpinned again with USDJPY rallying again but sellers, including me, have remained poised.

    I remain GBP bearish overall and continue to rally-sell as my preferred strategy and buy back in the dips amid all the uncertainty/indecision including Brexit. Data risk today at 08.30 GMT brings us the latest UK wages/jobs figures so we will expect the algos to feed off any headlines wide of expectations.

    EURUSD looks underpinned for the moment helped by EURGBP, EURCHF and EURJPY demand. USDJPY saw a hold of 108.30-35 to see another rally to 108.67 amid the PBOC USDCNY adjustment and better risk sentiment. USDCHF remains undermined the EURUSD demand with EURCHF also in tight-range mode but supported by the usual dip demand with the SNB ever casting their shadow.

    AUDUSD is still making its mind up and tightly bound helped by the PBOC-led AUDJPY buying versus some natural sell interest given USD demand and softer gold/weaker data. USDCAD remains on the back foot still amid generally firmer oil prices and decent CAD/JPY demand.

    Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready with your entry/exit levels and orders as always.

    Have a good day out there one and all.

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank Rate 07.35 BST

    GBPUSD 1.2680

    EURUSD 1.1316

    EURGBP 0.8923

    GBPEUR 1.1205

    GBPAUD 1.8235

    GBPCAD 1.6816

    USDJPY 108.62

    USDZAR 14.7225

    EURJPY 122.92

    EURCHF 1.1208

    EURHKD 8.7736

    GBPJPY 137.74

    GBPZAR 18.6801

    GBPHKD 9.8308

    AUDUSD 0.6954

    USDCAD 1.3260

    USDCHF 0.9906

    Read more...

    0 comments

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