• Some risk-off sentiment returns as another busy week begins

    Well, after spending most of the European day making its mind up we were left in no doubt on the Pound after the 16.00 GMT London fix which saw huge demand for the month/quarter end Spot date and a GBPUSD rally from 1.2240 to 1.2440 in just over two hours then on further to 1.2485 amid USD selling across the board. We had seen another pre-fix GBP move during last week but from lower (oversold) levels and balancing some short supply. Friday's move squeezed out more shorts, but sellers have returned helped further this morning by some risk-off supply and we should now see a more balanced playing field.Famous last words!

    Elsewhere we've seen equity markets fall this morning with oil prices on 17 year lows ( I noted on Friday its distinct lack of rally) and some risk-off sentiment back in play. COVID-19 fallout speculation continues to dominate as does how the Central Banks and goverments globally try to limit the damage.

    GBPUSD has capped at 1.2470 in Asia but also found support at 1.2320 this morning on the retreat.EURGBP duly fell to test 0.8900 (GBPEUR up to 1.1235) on the strong GBP demand but since rallied to 0.8989 (GBPEUR down to 1.1125) . We should still have some month-end demand to temper losses should GBP surge again. GBPJPY found support around 132.60 but failed at 134.80 on the GBP rally as USDJPY found renewed supply but since holding 132.80 on the retreat with core pairs both finding dip demand again.

    I stay poised to sell GBP rallies and buy back in the dips as ever. Obviously seems to be some natural demand over the past few days which I respect of course but the overall picture remains less clear still imho.Patience is a virtue and entry level key as always.

    USDJPY has fallen to 107.12 amid the USD supply and risk-off sentiment despite BOJ threatening to throw their own kitchen sink at the economy while EURJPY has had an up n down ride between 118.80-120.30 but now trading mid-way as core pairs trade more tightly.EURUSD has been up to 1.1147 amid the general USD supply but sellers prevailed there too and now tested 1.1060 support on the retreat.USDCHF capped around 0.9650 as EURUSD rallied but losses below 0.9520 tempered buy some EURCHF dip demand again with that pair now finding support around 1.0580.

    AUDUSD rallied strongly too on the USD Friday fix supply and we've been up to 0.6185 before retreating to 0.6112 helped by some renewed AUDJPY selling.USDCAD has fallen from 1.4140 to test 1.3925 but since rallied on further oil price falls and some USD supply to look at 1.4100.

    Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready to jump on moves with your entry/exit levels and orders as always. Caution advised as ever if you're not sure. Please feel free to contact me as always.

    Let's continue to be careful out there in all things as ever. Staying safe must be our main priority still.

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank rates: 07.50 GMT

    GBPUSD 1.2380

    EURUSD 1.1078

    EURGBP 0.8948

    GBPEUR 1.1172

    GBPAUD 2.0160

    GBPCAD 1.7390

    GBPJPY 133.75

    GBPZAR 22.0735

    GBPHKD 9.5982

    USDJPY 108.12

    USDZAR 17.8333

    EURJPY 119.66

    EURCHF 1.0580

    EURHKD 8.5913

    AUDUSD 0.6132

    USDCAD 1.4060

    USDCHF 0.9557

    Read more...

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  • Pound demand notable again but jury remains out

    Lots of conjecture/theory about why the Pound should have enjoyed such a positive 48 hours but it still seems to me the market just got over extended on its fall and we've been seeing some panic-buying as more n more stops get triggered.I have no exact answers but have warned of being careful on entry levels and making sure you're seeing the real flow pattern. Well, that flow has been positive, and some, so in these volatile times sellers need to stand back and let it play out.

    Elsewhere we've seen equity markets rebound only to run into rally-sellers again (correctly imho) but oil continues to show no tendency to rally and that for me is notable and says risk-off/reality check is still the main play moving forward. Oil falling again now as I type.

    I warned yesterday that GBPUSD has found a good line in the sand at 1.1820 and we've seen another strong rebound to break the 1.2000 cap and test 1.2300 before reteating on another risk reality-check. EURGBP yesterday failed above 0.9200 on the strong GBP demand but has found a base at 0.9000 so far only to fail at 0.9080 on the latest rally.GBPJPY found support around 130.80 but failed above 133.60 and since holding 132.00 on the retreat with core pairs both finding dip demand.

    I stay poised to sell GBP rallies and buy back in the dips as ever.Nothing in these latest moves to change my mind but as always patience is a virtue and entry level key.

    USDJPY has duly fallen to 108.24 but reboundiong to post 109.00 as I type while EURJPY has been up to look at 121.00 again as EURUSD rally outpaced USDJPY retreat before retreating as USDJPY supply returns to post 119.63.EURUSD has been up to 1.1087 amid the general USD supply but sellers prevailed and now testing 1.1000 pivot again where we also have 1.15bln expiries today.USDCHF capped around 0.9730 as EURUSD rallied but losses below 0.9600 tempered buy some EURCHF dip demand again with that pair finding support around 1.0600.

    AUDUSD rallied strongly from 0.5960 to test 0.6125-30 before retreating but still underpinned as I type into 0.6050. USDCAD has fallen further from 1.4220 to look at 1.3980 amid the general USD supply but finding some dip demand as oil prices head lower again weakening the C$.

    Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready to jump on moves with your entry/exit levels and orders as always. Caution advised as ever if you're not sure.

    Lots going on right now, and the foreseeable future, so don't forget that I offer 1-2-1 mentoring if there's areas of trading these volatile markets that you might need some further help with.

    Let's continue to be careful out there in all things as ever. Staying safe must be our main priority still and make sure you get some rest over the weekend.

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank rates: 08.17 GMT

    GBPUSD 1.2187

    EURUSD 1.1030

    EURGBP 0.9048

    GBPEUR 1.1049

    GBPAUD 2.0040

    GBPCAD 1.7115

    GBPJPY 132.59

    GBPZAR 21.4150

    GBPHKD 9.4486

    USDJPY 108.81

    USDZAR 17.5437

    EURJPY 120.01

    EURCHF 1.0617

    EURHKD 8.5515

    AUDUSD 0.6075

    USDCAD 1.4047

    USDCHF 0.9625

    Read more...

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  • Pound in a whirl as uncertainty continues

    It's been a rollercoaster ride, and some, for the Pound in the last 24 hours and looking bid again this morning as another crazy day kicks in. The early risk-on rally soon turned into a rout and we saw GBP pairs in rapid reversal amid some risk-off, doubts on our capacity to cope with COVID but no solid explanation. Go with the flow, "ours is not to reaon why" et al were the name of this game as Pound pairs reversed sharply in to the 16.00 GMT fix and just kept on going.

    That underlying demand was notable in the price action with GBPUSD ramping up with bids coming in above offers once we came back above 1.1670 from the 1.1638 lows and that was a sure sign someone was hoovering and shorts were suitably running for cover, including me. Stand well back was the message and I hope the sellers amongst you were not caught too badly. The move down in the Pound exceeded my expectations so found myself taking profit on shorts too early but at least I didn't get caught on the rapid rebound. Don't get greedy is another of my mantras as you know.

    Elsewhere we saw equity markets in early decline only to also rebound while the US anti-COVID stimulus package has once again failed to get addressed while others around the world continue to pump liquidity, both monetary and and fiscal, into their systems.

    GBPUSD has found a good line in the sand at 1.1820 now since yesterday's sharp rally above 1.1900 and we've seen another strong rebound rallying to 1.1963 so far this morning and EURGBP down to 0.9134 from 0.9242 as EURUSD rallies less again. EURGBP yesterday found a base at 0.9060 (GBPEUR sellers at 1.1035) and rallied to 0.9265 (1.0795) so there's your range for now. GBPJPY fell to test 130.00 and since rallied to test 132.50 but in retreat again as USDJPY falls outstripping even the GBPUSD rally atm.

    I stay poised to sell GBP rallies and buy back in the dips as ever.Nothing in these latest moves to change my mind but as always patience is a virtue and entry level key.

    USDJPY has found a cap above 111.50 YET again and finally picked up some downside momentum to post 109.81. EURJPY has enjoyed a solid rally from 120.00 as EURUSD found buyers too before failing above 121.00 and retreating as USDJPY supply returns.EURUSD has been up to 1.0946 amid the general USD supply but sellers remain poised into 1.1000.USDCHF capped around 0.9820 again but losses below 0.9750 tempered buy some EURCHF demand again with that pair posting new recent highs of 1.0655. That propping up between 1.0520-40 noew seems a distant memory eh?

    AUDUSD tumbled to look at 0.5880 from 0.6065 but finding some buyers this morning on the general USD supply to post 0.5978. USDCAD has fallen from 1.4415 to 1.4170 amid the general USD supply and large anti-COVID stimulus package announced yesterday.

    Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready to jump on moves with your orders as always. Caution advised as ever if you're not sure.

    Lots going on right now, and the foreseeable future, so don't forget that I offer 1-2-1 mentoring if there's areas of trading these volatile markets or how to make best use of the order boards and expiries, that you might need some further help with.

    Let's continue to be careful out there in all things as ever. Staying safe must be our main priority still.

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank rates: 08.36 GMT

    GBPUSD 1.1918

    EURUSD 1.0938

    EURGBP 0.9176

    GBPEUR 1.0894

    GBPAUD 2.0020

    GBPCAD 1.6947

    GBPJPY 131.33

    GBPZAR 20.8751

    GBPHKD 9.2400

    USDJPY 110.17

    USDZAR 17.5564

    EURJPY 120.57

    EURCHF 1.0645

    EURHKD 8.4817

    AUDUSD 0.5954

    USDCAD 1.4216

    USDCHF 0.9727

    Read more...

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  • Better risk-sentiment prevailing

    After the US Fed's recent unprecedented actions and now the government's stimulus package finding support we are seeing continuing risk appetite as European trading gets underway with equities rising and safe-haven currencies on the back foot again. The Pound is making some solid gains across the board but the Aussie $ also shining. I'm not convinced by the justification of such sentiment but as I tweeted earlier we may be seeing some decent correction of previously over-extended moves in currencies such as these. Either way I'm not convinced we are on a one-way ticket of relief-rally just yet.

    I will also repeat my other advice..."Remember though in these days of self-isolation that our mental well-being and being able to trade objectively is more important than ever. Set out your day-to day and longer term goals and keep everything in perspective." I will add this too, "Don't go chasing losses or get rich quick schemes."

    GBPUSD rallying to 1.1931 so far this morning, just short of Friday's highs, helped by GBPJPY and GBPCHF demand and EURGBP down to 0.9078 as EURUSD rallies less. EURGBP has been down through the pivotal 0.9160 area to post 0.9078 amid the GBP strength but finding some demand as I type. GBPJPY remains in steady ascent with core pairs finding dip demand as I warned yesterday with sellers like me biding their time to re-enter.

    I stay poised to sell GBP rallies and buy back in the dips as ever but not standing in the way of this current moving truck.

    USDJPY has found a cap above 111.50 yet again but support into 110.75-80 and now finding some risk-on support to rally again. EURJPY has also enjoyed a solid rally to 120.83 on the better risk/core pair dip demand.EURUSD has been up to 1.0883, down to 1.0745 and back to 1.0840 as I type amid the general USD supply and better risk.USDCHF capped around 0.9850 again but losses below 0.9800 tempered buy some EURCHF demand again and now that pair is back above 1.0600.

    AUDUSD has rallied to 0.6074 after finding a line around 0.5940-50 again as AUDJPY demand returned too. USDCAD has capped around 1.4520 amid the general USD supply and better risk sentiment with CADJPY demand returning.

    Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready to jump on moves with your orders as always. Caution advised as ever if you're not sure.

    Lots going on right now, and the foreseeable future, so don't forget that I offer 1-2-1 mentoring if there's areas of trading these volatile markets or how to make best use of the order boards and expiries, that you might need some further help with.

    Let's continue to be careful out there in all things as ever. Staying safe must be our main priority still.

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank rates: 08.35 GMT

    GBPUSD 1.1875

    EURUSD 1.0832

    EURGBP 0.9097

    GBPEUR 1.0989

    GBPAUD 1.9622

    GBPCAD 1.7037

    GBPJPY 132.77

    GBPZAR 20.6311

    GBPHKD 9.2067

    USDJPY 111.65

    USDZAR 17.2825

    EURJPY 120.73

    EURCHF 1.0612

    EURHKD 8.3781

    AUDUSD 0.6069

    USDCAD 1.4298

    USDCHF 0.9795

    Read more...

    0 comments

  • Softer Greenback but markets still in unchartered waters

    The US Fed have gone all in on this particular poker game and eventually we've seen some USD supply but ranges still contained as the uncertainty continues.

    I will repeat my paragraph from yesterday...Strange times out there right now with the UK and others imposing even more severe social distancing measures and threatening more to come if current advice not heeded. Markets are fragile and basic rules of behaviour are thrown out the window. Even more reason to identify ranges and trade accordingly. Something that my 1-2-1 clients have learned. Ours is not to reason why, ours is just to sell and buy.......

    Also remember though in these days of self-isolation that our mental well-being and being able to trade objectively is more important than ever. Set out your day-to day and longer term goals and keep everything in perspective. After 40 years in the FX business, and with many life lessons along the way, I humbly believe I can help you on this too. Please feel free to get in touch.

    GBPUSD looked at 1.1450 only to bounce on the USD supply/UK govt tighter measures but has capped into 1.1700 so far ( breaking as I type) after holding around 1.1650 on the previous retreat. EURGBP has been up to 0.9388 but retreated and currently holding 0.9250 with core pair both finding some support. GBPJPY found a base at 127.50 and been in steady ascent with core pairs now finding dip demand.Sellers remain poised though. Bids building now at 129.20, 129.00, 128.00, 127.85, 127.50 and 127.00 then more at 126.00, 125.50 and 125.00 again. Offers at 129.80-85 and 130.00 then 130.20-25, 130.60, 130.75 and 131.00.

    I stay poised to sell GBP rallies and buy back in the dips as ever.

    USDJPY has found a cap around 111.40 yet again but support into 110.00 and now finding some risk-on support to rally to 110.80. EURJPY has been down to 118.00 but now 120.10 on the better risk/core pair dip demand.EURUSD has enjoyed a rally to 1.0868 amid the general USD supply and better risk but tempered by some rubbish economic data earlier.USDCHF capped around 0.9855 but losses below 0.9760 tempered buy some EURCHF demand again into 1.0540.

    AUDUSD has rallied to 0.5976 and now finding a line around 0.5940 as some AUDJPY demand returns. USDCAD has capped around 1.4550 amid the general USD supply but finding support into 1.4380 so there's your immediate range with more support at 1.4350.

    Fickle Forex markets ever prevailing so be ready to jump on moves with your orders as always. Caution advised as ever if you're not sure.

    Lots going on right now, and the foreseeable future, so don't forget that I offer 1-2-1 mentoring if there's areas of trading these volatile markets or how to make best use of the order boards and expiries, that you might need some further help with.

    Let's continue to be careful out there in all things as ever. Staying safe must be our main priority still.

    Twitter: @MSPFX and @MikePatersonFX

    Interbank rates: 08.29 GMT

    GBPUSD 1.1657

    EURUSD 1.0833

    EURGBP 0.9288

    GBPEUR 1.0762

    GBPAUD 1.9585

    GBPCAD 1.6791

    GBPJPY 128.99

    GBPZAR 20.6445

    GBPHKD 9.0377

    USDJPY 110.65

    USDZAR 17.6099

    EURJPY 119.88

    EURCHF 1.0576

    EURHKD 8.3978

    AUDUSD 0.5956

    USDCAD 1.4398

    USDCHF 0.9758

    Read more...

    0 comments

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